A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that during President Donald Trump’s second term, only one in three individuals arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had a prior criminal conviction. This study analyzed administrative data covering over a decade of ICE arrests and highlights significant shifts in arrest patterns.
Findings of the Study
The study is among the most extensive empirical examinations of U.S. immigration enforcement. Researchers analyzed approximately 1.6 million ICE arrests from October 2015 to March 2026, comparing arrest patterns over the Obama, Biden, and Trump administrations. They found that during Trump’s second term, 34% of those arrested had a criminal conviction, marking a historic low compared to past years.
Arrest figures dropped from 52% during President Joe Biden’s last year as Vice President, to 70% in the initial year of Trump’s first administration, and 79% during President Barack Obama’s final year. Lead author Chloe East stated that these findings contrast sharply with the public narrative that ICE arrests focus on public safety by targeting criminals.
Changes in Arrest Tactics
During both of Trump’s presidencies, ICE arrest rates increased significantly. The study recorded an average of 436 daily arrests in the first 14 months of Trump’s first term, a 43% rise from Obama’s last year. In Trump’s second term, daily arrests averaged 952, representing a 214% increase from Biden’s final year.
The shift to increased community arrests was a central finding of the study. Community arrests, which occur in places like neighborhoods, workplaces, and schools, increased from 19% during Biden’s last year to about 44% in Trump’s subsequent term. Conversely, arrests in collaboration with local law enforcement decreased from three-quarters to just over half of total arrests.
Associate Professor Caitlin Patler noted a decline in the share of arrestees with criminal convictions across both community and law enforcement-assisted arrests. This trend was evident nationwide, though tactics varied by region. Notably, jurisdictions such as Boston, Chicago, and New York saw increases in community arrests, aligning with the administration’s focus on sanctuary jurisdictions.
Broader Implications
The researchers argue that changes in enforcement practices do not wholly account for the reduced share of arrestees with criminal convictions. Even using consistent arrest methods, the proportion of those with convictions decreased as total arrests surged.
This shift occurred as the Trump administration pursued an expanded immigration enforcement strategy under a strict deportation policy. The study did not assess whether those without criminal convictions faced civil immigration violations or pending charges, focusing only on prior recorded convictions.
In July, ICE recorded a monthly high during Trump’s second term by detaining over 46,000 individuals for alleged immigration violations, based on internal DHS data obtained by CBS News.
For more information, Newsweek editors can be contacted: Matthew Cannon and Robert Greenall.