Current Political Landscape
Three months remain until the November 3 midterm elections. New polling suggests President Trump faces a challenging political landscape. State-by-state data indicates Trump is underwater in every swing state. This suggests small shifts in voter sentiment could determine Congress’s control.
The data comes from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll with 120,580 responses. Newsweek analyzed Trump’s approval rating on July 30, 2026, compared to January 20, 2025, at the start of his second term. Net approval is calculated as approve minus disapprove.
Approval Ratings
Nationally, Trump’s approval rating stands at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving, resulting in a net approval of -23. Republican territories show stronger ratings, while Democratic areas are deeply negative. Battleground states remain crucial for the midterm outcomes.
Several states once showing positive net approval have shifted to negative. Republican-leaning states, formerly Trump’s strong base, show notable declines.
Key Demographic Groups
Trump struggles with several demographic groups. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among his weakest supporters.
Brett Loyd, co-founder of the Independent Center, highlights Trump’s challenging position, describing it as a “collapse among the middle third of the electorate.” Loyd suggests this could create difficulties for Republican candidates in November.
Comparison with Previous Midterms
In comparison, at a similar point before the 2022 midterms, President Biden had a 36 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval rating, a net -19. Trump’s current ratings are similar yet weaker in key battleground states.
In 2018, Trump’s net approval stood at -10. His current net rating, -23, places him 13 points lower than he was ahead of his first midterm election.
Demographic Analysis
Demographic breakdowns help explain trends. Among 18 to 34-year-olds, 22 percent approve, 72 percent disapprove. Voters aged 35 to 49 show 29 percent approval, 63 percent disapproval. Independents show 28 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval.
Educational divides are significant. Among postgraduates, approval is 24 percent while disapproval is 72 percent. Non-college graduates have a narrower split at 39 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove.
Strong Support in Red States
Trump retains support in Republican heartlands. Wyoming and North Dakota show net approval ratings of +19. West Virginia, Alabama, and Idaho also show positive ratings. Despite this, even strong states exhibit declines.
For example, Kentucky shifted from +23 to -5, showing a steep decline.
Swing States Challenged
Swing states show Trump underwater: Arizona (-11), Georgia (-22), Nevada (-21), North Carolina (-15), Pennsylvania (-18), Wisconsin (-16), Florida (-12), Ohio (-13). These patterns present challenges that could influence control post-election.
States with Declining Approval
- Kentucky: +23 to -5 (down 28 points)
- Wyoming: +47 to +19 (down 28 points)
- Oklahoma: +31 to +8 (down 23 points)
- Florida: +9 to -12 (down 21 points)
- Nevada: 0 to -21 (down 21 points)
- Idaho: +34 to +13 (down 21 points)
- Iowa: +6 to -14 (down 20 points)
- Tennessee: +25 to +5 (down 20 points)
- Ohio: +8 to -13 (down 21 points)
- West Virginia: +35 to +15 (down 20 points)
Many declines are in Republican-leaning states. Loyd suggests voters expected economic stability instead of continuous political conflict.
Support in Democratic States
Democratic-leaning states remain staunchly negative. Hawaii has the lowest net approval at -60, followed by Vermont (-55), Maryland (-52), and Massachusetts (-46).
Democratic states started with low support for Trump, limiting further declines.
Stable States
States near balanced approval ratings include Indiana (+2), Nebraska (-3), Louisiana (-4), Mississippi (-1), and Missouri (-7), reflecting tightened margins.
White House Response
White House spokesman Davis Ingle cites progress on jobs, inflation, and housing affordability. He argues Trump has achieved more for Americans than previous presidents.
Future Considerations
Loyd warns against interpreting approval ratings alone. These should be viewed alongside other political indicators. He notes potential parallels to 2018’s political dynamics but acknowledges post-2020 redistricting may boost GOP incumbents.
Contact Newsweek editor: Trevor Davies.