A Democratic congressman voiced strong objections to a prediction market that permits users to wager on deportation numbers under the Trump administration. President Donald Trump, upon assuming office again in January 2025, pledged mass deportations, with reports estimating targets up to 1 million in the first year. However, obtaining official deportation statistics has proven challenging.
The Kalshi market presents various deportation totals as potential outcomes, with a 96% likelihood indicated for more than 400,000 removals. Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton condemned this market, describing it as ‘disgusting’ and demanded its closure. He criticized Kalshi for allowing what he deemed a morally objectionable bet akin to others involving serious human concerns.
‘Kalshi letting users bet on deportation numbers is just as perverse as Polymarket letting people wager on the lives of our troops,’ Moulton shared in a post. As the first congressional member to prohibit staff from engaging in prediction markets, he called on Kalshi to prove their asserted ethical claims by terminating this market.
Newsweek sought comments from Moulton, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Kalshi, while the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) seemed to support the market with gambling jargon implying confidence in high deportation outcomes.
Seth Moulton’s Stance on Immigration
Moulton’s objection to the Kalshi market aligns with his ongoing efforts concerning immigration reform. He has criticized enforcement measures from Trump’s previous term and pushed for more legal protections for migrants. In June, he introduced a bill mandating judicial review for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) decisions, arguing that many might face deportation without proper legal oversight.
His office provides guidelines for immigrants on rights and legal counsel when interacting with ICE. Despite not opposing all enforcement, he insists deportations should involve due-process and judicial scrutiny.
Legal Questions Around Prediction Markets
The legality of prediction markets like Kalshi’s is debated. Kalshi registers as a federally regulated exchange under the CFTC, framing its contracts as financial products under federal law rather than state gambling regulations. While the Commodity Exchange Act allows relevant event contracts, federal laws impose rigorous checks, especially on markets involving socially contentious topics.
The CFTC holds the authority to prohibit contracts if seen as contrary to public interest. Questions persist on prediction markets’ fit concerning elections, government operations, public health, or contentious subjects. Some Democratic lawmakers have urged stricter regulatory scrutiny over these markets when involving government or public affairs.
Trump’s Deportation Numbers Under Scrutiny
Though deportation activities have increased since Trump’s return to office, public figures indicate that removals have not met the administration’s target of 1 million annually. Analyses of ICE’s records suggest approximately 400,000 deportations in Trump’s first year, a notable rise but still below the outlined goals.
Experts advise caution as these numbers are not straightforward. Fiscal Year 2025 incorporates months before Trump’s reelection and ICE deportations do not cover all removals conducted by agencies like CBP. Data from Migration Policy Institute analyst Ariel G. Ruiz Soto shows increased ICE deportations, signifying a focus on interior enforcement. This escalation feeds the debate on whether Trump will achieve his mass deportation targets.
Such heightened focus on deportation statistics offers insight into the Kalshi market’s controversy. Given the deportation figures’ role in evaluating Trump’s immigration policy, critics like Moulton argue these speculative markets reduce significant political and human concerns to financial gambles.