Thomas Christian Owens, a 29-year-old manufacturing engineer, ventured into prediction market trading this year. In January, he created a Kalshi account and started with a $500 deposit. “It was a little bit of a birthday gift to myself to throw some money in there and just have some fun,” Owens shared. His goal was not immense wealth, but some extra cash to support himself and family members. However, his optimism turned as he soon found himself in financial trouble.
Many young men like Owens are attracted to prediction markets, seeking excitement, quick money, and sometimes financial security. An April survey by Navigator Research found that close to 40% of men between 18 and 34 participate in prediction markets. Kalshi, a prominent U.S. prediction market platform, reports that of its 4 million active users, roughly 3 million are male, with a significant portion aged 18 to 34.
Recently, prediction markets attracted attention due to alleged insider trading. Notable cases include a Google employee allegedly profiting over $1.2 million using confidential information. A U.S. special forces soldier was also implicated for predicting former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s removal before it was public knowledge. Ex-Rep. George Santos faced scrutiny for alleged insider trading on Kalshi too.
“Young men tend to express more confidence than women when it comes to financial decisions and taking risks,” said Michael Liersch, a behavioral finance expert.
The Appeal of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets let users bet on various possible events. Users place wagers on “yes” and “no” event contracts priced between $0 and $1. If correct, they earn $1 per contract; if wrong, they lose the investment. Topics range from U.S. government alien confirmations to sports outcomes.
Owens, a basketball enthusiast, often bets on sports events, including the Oklahoma City Thunder. His early “combo” bet gained him $456 from $50, a return of over 800%. Another successful prediction turned $196 into nearly $1,700.
Another user, Steven Zhang, discovered prediction markets through a social media ad during a library study session. Intrigued by the idea of betting on words President Trump might use in a debate, Zhang and friends invested $20, which they lost. Now, Zhang trades with $150, focusing on uncertain outcomes like TV announcer comments during NBA games.
The thrill comes from the balance between being right or wrong, and experts suggest that biological differences may explain risk preferences. Men often embrace speculative assets, showing less fear of financial loss.
“They have maybe less of what economists call an endowment effect,” explained David Bieri, an associate professor at Virginia Tech.
The Odds and Realities
Owens hoped that his Kalshi earnings could help support his family. These expectations reflect a larger trend—75% of men surveyed by Northwestern Mutual feel financially behind, with speculative investments seen as a possible solution. Familial financial pressure and economic headlines add to this inclination.
However, the prediction markets’ reality often contrasts sharply. Owens’ account quickly fell from $4,600 to $1,700, below his total deposits. He now keeps individual bets below $100, cautious after previous losses. Although a few Kalshi users earned millions, the Wall Street Journal reported over 67% of Polymarket profits went to just 0.1% of accounts.
Jordan Bender, managing director at Citizens, reported that the median prediction market return is -8%, indicating a loss of $8 per $100 wagered. This suggests that users should not expect consistent gains in betting.