A recent poll by the Trafalgar Group has shown Representative Nancy Mace trailing behind several competitors in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary. This change follows President Donald Trump’s support for Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, which could influence the primary set for Tuesday.
Trump’s endorsement has significant influence in South Carolina, often swaying GOP voters and consolidating fractured support. The poll conducted from June 2 to June 4 shows a competitive race without a clear leader.
Current Polling and Campaign Reactions
The Mace campaign acknowledged the poll results led by Republican pollster Robert Cahaly. A spokesperson for Mace dismissed the poll as a “suppression poll,” and criticized the numbers presented.
Mace began her gubernatorial campaign last August, opting not to run for reelection to Congress. Initially a frontrunner due to her high-profile entry, the race has since become more contested with multiple candidates vying for the position. According to state laws, if no candidate wins over 50 percent, the top two will face a runoff.
What Prediction Markets Say
Market predictions from Kalshi place Mace’s chances at less than 4 percent, while Evette leads with 68 percent and Wilson follows at 27 percent. Polymarket indicates a similar trend, with Mace falling below 5 percent, Evette rising to 68 percent, and Wilson holding 24 percent.
The Epstein Files and the Fracture With Trump
Previously, Mace and Trump had supported each other politically. However, their relationship soured over Mace’s insistence on releasing classified documents concerning Jeffrey Epstein. As a sexual assault survivor, Mace criticized the Justice Department’s handling of the issue, including during Trump’s administration.
While some conservatives backed Mace’s transparency demands, others found them politically sensitive. Trump’s backing of Evette represented a significant fallout. Mace addressed it on social media, emphasizing transparency and her commitment to justice over political gain.
Broader Congressional Fallout
Other lawmakers, such as Representative Thomas Massie, who also advocated for the document’s release, faced repercussions. Massie praised Mace and others for their stance but noted it came at a high political cost.
Massie lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger, while Representative Lauren Boebert risks a similar challenge. Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene chose not to seek reelection, citing her divergence with Trump on this matter.
What Lies Ahead
The primary is set for June 9, with the possibility of a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent. With the race so competitive and many voters undecided, efforts are intensifying as candidates navigate Trump’s endorsement and other last-minute developments that may impact the results.