California’s Gubernatorial Primary Dynamics
The latest poll shows Xavier Becerra leading California’s gubernatorial primary race. Conducted by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics, the survey places Becerra at 28 percent support. Competition for second place is intense, with Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton nearly tied. Steyer secures 22 percent, while Hilton follows at 21 percent.
California’s Top-Two Primary System
California implements a top-two primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The two receiving the most votes advance to the general election. This system allows for candidates from the same party to compete in the general election. Historically, the state leans Democratic. Former Vice President Kamala Harris led by 20 percentage points here over President Donald Trump in 2024. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican governor, leaving office in 2011.
Current Candidates for Governor
With Governor Gavin Newsom unable to run due to term limits, the race is open and highly anticipated. Key candidates include:
- Xavier Becerra: Democrat, former HHS Secretary under President Biden.
- Chad Bianco: Republican, Riverside County Sheriff.
- Steve Hilton: Republican political commentator, former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron.
- Matt Mahan: Democrat, Mayor of San Jose.
- Katie Porter: Democrat, former Congressional representative for Orange County.
- Tom Steyer: Democratic businessman.
- Tony Thurmond: Democrat, State Superintendent of Public Instruction.
- Antonio Villaraigosa: Democrat, former Los Angeles Mayor.
Eric Swalwell and Betty Yee, previously in the race, have exited. The field is mostly Democratic, but spans various ideologies. Becerra aligns with traditional Democrats. Porter focuses on anti-corporate, progressive policies. Villaraigosa is seen as a centrist. Steyer campaigns on a populist progressive platform, emphasizing climate change and economic inequality, using personal wealth for his campaign.
Republican candidates Bianco and Hilton represent conservative and populist perspectives. Despite the challenge in a Democratic-dominated state, the top-two system creates opportunities in dispersed votes. President Trump endorsed Hilton recently. Hilton maintains confidence but acknowledges a competitive field. Post-primary, the general election is in November.
Poll Analysis
The Emerson poll, conducted May 27-28 with 1,000 likely voters, reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. If Bianco’s support weakens, Hilton could benefit. Steyer aims to rally young voters, balancing against a growing Becerra coalition.
Compared to a mid-May survey, Becerra’s support rose by 9 points. Steyer and Hilton saw smaller increases. The earlier poll showed Becerra at 19 percent and Hilton and Steyer tied at 17 percent. Bianco had 11 percent, while Porter was at 10 percent, all within the same margin of error.
Another University of California Berkeley poll found Becerra at 25 percent, Hilton at 21 percent, and Steyer at 19 percent. Bianco, Porter, and Mahan followed. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.
PPIC’s survey also placed Becerra on top, with Hilton and Steyer behind. The three-point gap between Becerra and Hilton is within the margin of error, making no clear frontrunner statistically.
These polls provide Democratic reassurance, as early speculation suggested potential Republican advancement. The diverse Democratic candidate pool creates risk of vote dilution, yet recent polling alleviates these concerns.