Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for governor, is leading the race ahead of Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary. This is based on the final Emerson College Polling survey released before the election. The poll places Becerra with 28%, followed by billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 22% and Republican commentator Steve Hilton at 21%. The poll was conducted by Emerson College Polling on May 27-28.
Republican Sheriff of Riverside County, Chad Bianco, secured 12%. Other Democratic candidates, such as former Congresswoman Katie Porter and San José Mayor Matt Mahan, each had 5% support. The survey indicates Becerra’s increased support among Democrats at 44%, Hispanics at 36%, and women at 36%.
Republican and Young Voter Preferences
Hilton has gathered a significant portion of the Republican vote, owning 59% compared to Bianco’s 29%. Steyer is leading among voters younger than 30 with 36% and is also favored by 25% of white voters.
Potential Outcomes
If no candidate secures a majority in California’s open primary, the top two candidates will advance to the general election in November, regardless of party affiliation. Emerson College Polling’s Executive Director, Spencer Kimball, suggests that if Bianco’s support diminishes, Hilton is likely to benefit. As for Steyer, his success hinges on motivating younger voters and countering Becerra’s expanding coalition.
Voter Commitment
The survey shows a strong commitment among voters, with 75% affirming they will definitely support their chosen candidate. However, one quarter of the voters may still change their mind. Becerra continues to lead with 28%, while Hilton and Steyer each have 23% among those considering whom they might support.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters highlights changes since early May. Becerra saw a 9-point increase, while Steyer and Hilton gained 5 and 4 points respectively. Meanwhile, Bianco experienced a 1-point rise, and both Mahan and Porter experienced declines of 3 and 5 points.