President Donald Trump suggested that Americans could expect a sharp decline in gasoline prices following the resolution of the conflict with Iran. On May 11, during a time when the national average for a gallon of regular fuel was $4.52, Trump expressed optimism about future price reductions.
Expert Predictions on Gasoline Prices
Despite Trump’s confidence, energy analysts are more cautious. They warn that returning to pre-Iran conflict gas prices by the year’s end is improbable, even if hostilities cease immediately. Before the situation with Iran escalated, the U.S. average fuel price stood at $2.98 per gallon.
Denton Cinquegrana of Oil Price Information Service emphasized, “Americans can kiss that number goodbye for the rest of 2026.” He projected that prices might not normalize until the latter half of 2027.
Current Gas Price Trends
Leading up to February 28, gas prices in the U.S. were on a downward trend, supported by administrative policies touted as “wins for American families.” However, after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, prices reversed as oil production and supply faced disruptions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant channel for global oil transit, exerted further pressure.
This week, data from the American Automobile Association indicated that the national average remained around $4.50, showing an increase of $1.50 compared to late February. California reported some of the highest prices, averaging over $6 per gallon, whereas Mississippi had lower rates, just under $4 per gallon.
The Road to Price Reduction
Experts agree that merely ending the Iran conflict won’t suffice to lower gas prices. A critical step involves restoring the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Patrick De Haan noted, “Reopening the Strait fully to oil shipments and nothing less” is essential.
Even under optimal conditions, normalizing oil transit could take months or longer. Cinquegrana added that once the Strait reopens, “it will take some time to normalize.”
De Haan echoed this sentiment, forecasting, “two to three weeks for oil flows to stabilize post-reopening,” which might culmination beyond several weeks.
If reopened today, he suggested that shipments could begin operations by early June, with cargo deliveries extending into July. He stressed that prewar price levels might take over a year to realize.
Current Optimism and Market Speculation
Recent slight improvements in oil and gas prices hint at optimism rooted in Trump’s remarks about peace talks. However, market analysts remain vigilantly skeptical.
Adam Turnquist from LPL Financial remarked, “Despite recent price pullbacks, the Brent forward curve presents supply concerns, with near-term contracts at substantial premiums compared to distant futures.”
He observed, “December 2026 Brent futures are near $80 per barrel, a drop from $88 last week, yet still above preconflict figures.”
De Haan advised prudence, predicting, “Without a formal agreement and significant Strait traffic, average gasoline prices will likely stay above $4 per gallon.”