The Indiana Fever, currently on a streak with a record of 24-12, are set to face the Dallas Wings, who have not been performing as strongly, holding a 20-16 record. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday. Following the All-Star break, Indiana boasts a 7-2 record both outright and 5-4 against the spread, including a five-game winning streak. In contrast, Dallas stands at 2-7 in both categories, grappling with losses in five of their last six matches and failing to cover the spread in six consecutive games.
The season series between these teams is evenly matched with a 1-1 record both outright and against the spread. Indiana recently leveled the series by defeating Dallas 98-87, having previously lost to them 107-104 at the start of the season.
Caitlin Clark’s Impact
Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark manages the play against Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
The Dallas Wings had a slight edge heading into the fourth quarter of their last meeting, despite missing their leading rebounder and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) leader, center Jessica Shepard. In their initial matchup, Shepard excelled with nine rebounds and nine assists, both game-highs.
Notably, Indiana may be due for a setback, as competing against an opponent twice in a short span can be challenging.
Best Bet: Dallas Wings +2.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Controversial yet insightful, Paige Bueckers, another top talent in the league, might be considered better than Caitlin Clark. Both were top draft picks, secured Rookie of the Year awards, and average nearly 20 points per game. However, Bueckers has superior career statistics, including a higher PER and better on/off rating. She also outperforms Clark in shooting percentages and commits fewer turnovers.
Unfortunately, the Wings face adversity with Azzi Fudd, the 2026 top draft pick, undergoing season-ending knee surgery. Fudd significantly contributes to the team’s net rating and 3-point shooting. Nonetheless, this may result in Bueckers shouldering more offensive duties, positively impacting her scoring, as evidenced by her 22.5 points per game on 51.5% shooting against the Fever.
Both teams display noticeable differences in performance based on venue, with Dallas outperforming at home and Indiana away. Dallas shows a +6.4 home victory margin compared to -2.1 on the road, while Indiana holds an +8.7 victory margin at home and +2.8 on the road.
Despite Indiana’s strength in earning free throw opportunities, Dallas’s defensive free throw-to-field goal attempt rate ranks third. This advantage may amplify as teams often receive favorable home officiating. Notably, Dallas has maintained an edge in free throw opportunities against Indiana this season.
The importance of ball control in basketball cannot be overstated, and Dallas exhibits superior turnover rates both offensively and defensively.
Finally, the Wings benefit from more rest, having last played on Monday, whereas Indiana played on Tuesday. The Fever have competed twice since their last matchup against Dallas. This fatigue factor may play a role, as Indiana records a 4-8 against-the-spread record with less rest.
Prediction: Wings 94, Fever 88
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