Overview of Approval Ratings
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined in at least 11 states that he won by significant margins in the 2024 election. This trend raises concerns about growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Nationally, Trump’s approval rating stands at 36% with a disapproval rate of 59% as of July 30, according to Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters.
State-by-State Analysis
Trump’s approval was initially positive in all states he carried by at least 10 points during the 2024 presidential election. However, his ratings have now fallen below favorable in 11 of those states. These declines began following Trump’s announcement of tariffs on U.S. trading partners in April and escalated with the announcement of a war with Iran in February.
The affected states include: Alaska (-14), Florida (-12), Iowa (-14), Kentucky (-3), Louisiana (-4), Missouri (-7), Mississippi (-1), Nebraska (-3), Ohio (-13), South Carolina (-9), Texas (-13).
Even in states where Trump maintains higher approval ratings, the numbers have noticeably decreased since his second term began.
Implications for Midterm Elections
Key Races to Watch
Democrats need to gain four seats to take control of the Senate in November. Competitive races in Iowa, Ohio, and Texas are crucial to this goal. In Iowa, Democratic state Representative Josh Turek faces Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown stands against Republican incumbent Jon Husted. Texas features a closely watched race between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Swing State Dynamics
Trump’s approval ratings are underwater in all seven swing states that he won in 2024. Continued declines could hinder Republican efforts in these areas, providing Democrats opportunities to secure vital seats. States impacted include: Arizona (-12), Georgia (-22), Michigan (-21), Nevada (-21), North Carolina (-15), Pennsylvania (-18), Wisconsin (-16).
The White House Response
Despite declining approval ratings, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle asserts the 2024 election victory represents Trump’s public support. Ingle highlights Trump’s progress both domestically and globally, asserting his significance in American politics remains strong.