Primary polls are facing scrutiny after unexpected outcomes in two closely watched Democratic primaries. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated state Rep. Francesca Hong, despite her earlier poll lead of over 20 points. Similarly, in Michigan, left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed won against moderate Rep. Haley Stevens by less than a percentage point, defying expectations of an easy victory. These surprises highlight the difficulty of predicting voter turnout in primaries compared to general elections.
Pollsters had additional challenges with candidates entering and exiting the races. In Michigan, State Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew but remained on the ballot, securing 4% of the vote. Crowley experienced similar fluctuations in Wisconsin, impacting polling accuracy. Decisions Desk HQ’s chief elections analyst, Geoffrey Skelley, noted Crowley’s support surged on election day, an outcome the final polls failed to predict. Hong’s campaign challenges, including defending past social media comments, alongside outgoing Governor Tony Evers’ support for Crowley, likely contributed to the shift.
“The poll’s final results underestimated Crowley’s support but accurately reflected Hong’s,” Skelley stated.
Wisconsin’s open primary system allowed for cross-party voting, potentially skewing the results as Republicans participated in the Democratic primary, aiming to vote against Hong. Ballot data inconsistencies also posed challenges, according to Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate.
In other political news, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced her upcoming departure to focus on family, marking her as the first pregnant press secretary. President Trump praised her while revealing she will continue as a top adviser. Meanwhile, national gas prices reached a record high of $4.04 amid the Iran war, highlighting the economic impact of geopolitical tensions.
Internationally, over two dozen countries condemned Iran’s execution of protesters. The joint statement criticized the use of the death penalty to suppress dissent, urging Tehran to respect human rights and allow free expression. This criticism follows Iran’s public execution of two men and the sentencing of twelve others in connection with anti-government protests.
Upcoming events include President Trump’s intelligence briefing and signing sessions, alongside pro forma sessions by the Senate and House.
In the UK, Nigel Farage’s candidacy in Clacton’s special election, characterized by competition with satirical candidate Count Binface, reflects ongoing political dynamics. Despite the main parties refusing to participate, Farage is expected to win, although the impact on his reputation remains uncertain.