Texan voters head to the polls on Tuesday to select the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterms. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces a challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump. This endorsement has shifted the dynamics of the race significantly.
Trump’s Endorsement
President Trump endorsed Paxton last week, despite a historically good relationship with Cornyn. Trump’s endorsement often leads to a surge in support for the endorsed candidate. This pattern is evident as recent polls show Paxton leading since receiving Trump’s backing.
Polling Data
Recent polls suggest a slight but consistent lead for Paxton over Cornyn. For example:
- Quantas Insights (May 21-23): Paxton leads with 52.7% to Cornyn’s 43.4%, a margin of 9.3%.
- University of Houston Hobby School (April 28-May 1): Paxton has 48%, Cornyn at 45%, with 7% undecided.
- Global Strategy Group (May 6-11): Paxton holds 52%, compared to Cornyn’s 40%.
- The polling average shows Paxton at approximately 48.8% to Cornyn’s 41.0%, with an average margin of 7.8%.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets favor Paxton heavily. On Kalshi, Paxton had a 95% chance of winning the runoff by Monday. Polymarket showed a 77% chance for Paxton having more than a 9% lead over Cornyn. The markets reflect Trump’s endorsement impact, raising Paxton’s chances significantly.
Trump’s Influence
“Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas,” wrote Trump on Truth Social. He criticized Cornyn for being disloyal and urged voters to choose Paxton.
Trump emphasizes Paxton’s loyalty and effectiveness, while highlighting Cornyn’s alleged shortcomings.
The General Election Prospect
The Republican nominee will face Democrat James Talarico in November. Talarico, a Texas State Senator, has developed support across the state with a mix of faith and progressive politics. Despite Texas’s history of Republican wins, Talarico presents a serious challenge.
Talarico criticized the influence of wealthy donors in Texan politics, suggesting that both Cornyn and Paxton represent broken politics. He sees the fight as not political but rather economic, about the wealthy versus everyday citizens.
Outlook for Republicans
Betting markets indicate a competitive race. Kalshi users give Republicans a 55% chance of retaining the seat while Talarico has a 45% chance. Another market shows Paxton with a 57% likelihood of defeating Talarico.
Cornyn remains optimistic, citing his past electoral successes. However, he acknowledges Paxton’s potential vulnerabilities due to ongoing scandals and Talarico’s substantial fundraising efforts.