Polling Trends in the Texas Senate Race
Recent opinion polls show James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race has narrowed. Two new surveys indicate a slight decline in Talarico’s advantage, while the number of undecided voters has decreased. Democrats aim to capture the Senate in the upcoming November midterms, and victory in Texas—a historically Republican territory that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988—could greatly aid their efforts.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted from September 19 to 22, polled 1,007 likely voters. It found Talarico leading Paxton by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The poll’s margin of error is 3.6 percent. This contrasts with the previous survey conducted in August, where Talarico held a six-point lead at 48 percent against Paxton’s 42 percent.
Shifting Voter Decisions
Undecided voters have decreased from seven percent in August to three percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has gained two percentage points. The decline in Talarico’s support remains within the margin of error.
A Texas Southern University survey of 1,800 likely voters from September 15 to 19 shows Talarico ahead by just one point, leading with 47 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent and Brown’s three percent. The margin of error for this survey is 2.31 percent. Earlier, Talarico led by two points. The number of undecided voters fell from six percent to four percent.
Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comments on the developments.
Other Polls Show Close Contest
Several pollsters report Talarico’s advantage, although many results fall within the margin of error. An Emerson College survey conducted September 12-14 shows Talarico with a one-point lead, holding 47 percent of the vote against Paxton’s 46 percent. The poll surveyed 1,000 voters with a 3 percent margin of error.
An AARP survey conducted from August 30 to September 1 involving 895 likely voters gives Talarico a four-point lead with a 3.3-point margin of error. Additionally, a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters between August 27 and September 4 shows Talarico five points ahead with a 3.6-point margin of error.
Debate Challenge
During the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News, accusing Paxton of avoiding debates throughout the year. Talarico expressed willingness to debate in what he referred to as Paxton’s “safe space,” suggesting a session with Bret Baier on Fox News.
Campaign Funding
Federal Election Commission (FEC) data up to June 30 demonstrates Talarico’s campaign raised $31,853,507, significantly surpassing Paxton’s $9,147,100. Out-of-state donations account for 45 percent of Talarico’s funds, with California being the largest contributor. In contrast, Paxton’s campaign received 17.1 percent of its funds from out-of-state sources.
For further inquiries on the story, contact Newsweek editor Edward Pearcey.