Recent polls indicate a challenging landscape for Republicans in Texas, with Democrats showcasing strong performances in key races. The Siena College/ReconMR poll reveals Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the Senate race, while Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa outpaces Republican Governor Greg Abbott 49% to 45%. Meanwhile, the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey shows tighter races, with Talarico at 47% versus Paxton at 46%, and Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 46%.
Political analyst Jacob Rubashkin has termed the Siena/ReconMR numbers as potentially devastating for Republicans. According to Texas Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser, the GOP is determined to avoid historical losses, despite the growing public discord within the party.
The polls coincide with a contentious period for the Texas GOP, highlighted by backlash over social media comments from Bo French, Republican Railroad Commission nominee. French’s controversial remarks about University of Texas students have sparked criticism, even drawing rebukes from prominent Republicans like Senator John Cornyn and Governor Greg Abbott, who condemned the comments as divisive and unbefitting the party’s values.
Siena College’s survey, conducted September 8-11 with 614 likely voters, shows Talarico ahead 49% to 43% over Paxton, and Hinojosa leading Abbott 49% to 45%. These figures reflect shifts from previous polls where Abbott held a slight lead. Steinhauser emphasizes the competitive nature of the races, noting the possibility, albeit slim, of Democratic victories.
Texas Democrats also lead narrowly in other races. Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin leads Republican incumbent Dan Patrick 47% to 46% in the lieutenant governor’s race, while Republican state Senator Mayes Middleton leads Democratic state Senator Nathan Johnson 45% to 44% in the attorney general race.
Independent voters show significant movement; Hinojosa leads Abbott 65% to 27% among independents, a substantial increase from July. A similar trend appears in the Senate race, with Talarico leading Paxton 64% to 24% among independents. The ReconMR survey carries a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey, conducted September 12-14 with 1,000 likely voters, highlights a closer Senate race. Talarico leads narrowly, 47% to 46%. In the governor’s race, Abbott leads Hinojosa 49% to 46%. Emerson’s credibility interval is ±3 percentage points.
The polling data illustrates differing perceptions of the candidates. Talarico holds a favorable rating of 48%, while Paxton is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 48%. Abbott stands nearly divided, with 46% favorability against 47% unfavorability. Hinojosa is rated 48% favorable versus 27% unfavorable.
On key issues, ReconMR finds voters believing Hinojosa would better manage affordability and water supply, while Abbott leads on border security and safety. Despite polling figures, many predict Abbott’s victory, showcasing a gap between preference and expectation.
The economy remains the leading concern for Texas voters, topping immigration, education, healthcare, and democracy threats.
The Texas Republican Party also faces backlash from French’s social media posts, perceived as racially insensitive. French’s remarks were publicly condemned by several influential figures, with Republicans urging a focus on inclusivity and unity.
Texas Republicans struggle with divisions, exacerbated by the French controversy and primary fights between populist and establishment wings, like Ken Paxton’s win over Senator Cornyn. Prominent figures like Karl Rove have broken ranks, backing Democratic candidates amid dissatisfaction with current candidates.
At the GOP convention, Trump urged making the election a referendum on his leadership, although some doubt the effectiveness of a Trump-centric strategy.
Economic concerns also intersect with rapid data center expansion, opposed locally despite promotion by Trump and Abbott. This issue represents an ideological split within the party, impacting election dynamics.
Steinhauser cautions against panic, highlighting Texas Republicans’ enduring statewide office hold since 1994. Despite competitiveness, he remains optimistic about overcoming challenges.