Texas Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points, according to a recent poll. This occurs three months before voters decide whether to grant Abbott a fourth term or elect the first Democratic governor in over 30 years. Democrats have been aiming to gain ground in Texas, a state which last elected a Democratic governor in 1990 and has consistently supported Republican presidential nominees since 1980.
Despite past challenges, Democrats are optimistic. They believe former President Trump’s declining national approval may increase their competitiveness in conservative-leaning states like Texas, where a critical Senate race is also underway. Brandon Rottinghaus from the University of Houston notes the polling appears more favorable for Democrats now compared to 2022 or 2024.
Texas’s political climate has shifted since previous gubernatorial races. Mark Jones of Rice University explains how Abbott faced strong anti-Biden sentiment in 2022, but now faces anti-Trump challenges. Jones notes that although Hinojosa lacks the recognition of past candidates like Beto O’Rourke, Texas remains lightly Republican, offering Abbott a strong position.
“In 2026, Hinojosa does not have nearly the name recognition or the money that O’Rourke had, but the political climate is much more favorable for Democrats, so she will likely run closer to Abbott than O’Rourke did,” said Calvin Jillson from Southern Methodist University.
A Texas Southern University poll in late July, polling 1,200 likely voters, found Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 43%. Undecided voters made up 5%, while 3% supported Libertarian Pat Dixon. Abbott has a 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable rating; Hinojosa shows 37% favorable and 28% unfavorable ratings. Most voters are familiar with Abbott, whereas fewer have an opinion on Hinojosa, highlighting her recognition issue.
The poll indicates demographic divides. Abbott leads among white voters, while Hinojosa has an advantage with Latino, Black, and female voters. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
The 2026 race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests in the U.S. Strong support from the GOP and Trump’s endorsement positions Abbott as a solid Republican favorite, though polls suggest a potentially close race.
Abbott, a prominent conservative first elected in 2014, seeks to become Texas’s longest-serving governor. Hinojosa, a lawyer serving in the Texas House since 2017, faces challenges with lower recognition and funding than Abbott.
Another competitive race is the Texas Senate election, featuring Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, as Democrats aim to gain Senate control by flipping seats like Texas. Polls show a tight contest between them.
Shared funding between the Senate and gubernatorial races might boost Democratic efforts. Jones notes that at least $100 million in campaign funds will support Talarico, indirectly helping Hinojosa.
Prediction markets favor Abbott, giving him an 87-89% chance of winning, while Hinojosa has lower odds. The financial advantage is evident as Abbott holds $106 million, outpacing Hinojosa’s resources. Texans will make their choice in November, deciding Abbott’s potential continued governance or a Democratic shift.