Colorful billboards have emerged in Kansas announcing, “Traveling to Sarasota? Say hi to Senator Roger Marshall.” These were erected on Tuesday night as part of a competitive Senate race in the state that hasn’t seen such activity in nearly a century.
The billboards display Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a Hawaiian shirt, relaxing in a beach chair against a tropical scene. This imagery, funded by United Futures PAC, a super PAC backing his Democratic challenger Rev. Adam Hamilton, aims to highlight Democrats’ allegation that Marshall is disconnected from his constituents.
“Right now there’s a perfect storm for Hamilton,” said Bob Beatty, chair of the Department of Political Science at Washburn University. “There’s no doubt he can win.”
Beatty notes factors like President Trump’s declining popularity, issues in the agriculture sector, and Hamilton’s appeal to moderate Republicans as reasons the seat might flip. Hamilton, who changed his party allegiance from Republican to Democrat in April upon declaring his candidacy, faces a historically Republican state.
Despite Trump winning Kansas by a wide margin of 16 points in 2024, his approval has declined to 39%. This dip is attributed to high fuel prices due to the Iran war and tariffs affecting farmers and ranchers—key Republican voters.
According to AAA, diesel costs, which impact farming operations, have surged 79% from the previous year and increased nearly a dollar in the past month, adversely affecting farmers’ profit expectations. Trump’s move to remove tariffs on Argentine beef, meant to lower consumer prices, has resulted in losses of up to $600 per head for ranchers.
Additionally, the Trump administration’s immigration raids have disrupted local industries, prompting Marshall to distance himself with the assertion that ICE needs better coordination with local authorities.
Throughout his Senate race, Marshall, seeking reelection, faces historical challenges for a Democratic win. Yet, recent polls show a tight race, with Hamilton leading slightly in an Emerson College/Nexstar poll. Predictions from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have adjusted their ratings in favor of a Lean Republican outlook.
Hamilton, a prominent pastor, leads the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection and portrays himself as a centrist. Despite being labeled by Marshall as a liberal Democrat, Hamilton seeks to present Marshall as aligned too closely with Trump’s policies, irrelevant to Kansas’s needs.
Marshall has faced criticism for his infrequent town halls and his medical practice’s history of suing patients. A New York Times report disclosed legal actions against 700 patients, a contentious issue during this electoral period. Hamilton’s campaign has addressed this through ads featuring former patients affected by these practices.
Hamilton’s strategy includes gaining support from moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters, particularly in the Kansas City area. Despite securing endorsements from well-known figures, including a former Republican governor, his challenge remains significant in historically Republican territories.
With conflicting endorsements and prominent political figures campaigning on his behalf, Marshall’s alignment with Trump remains a subject of debate among experts. Beatty of Washburn University questions the effectiveness of Trump’s support for preserving Marshall’s seat.