Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has taken the lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn ahead of the state’s Republican U.S. Senate runoff election. A recent poll by Quantus Insights indicates Paxton holds 52.7 percent compared to Cornyn’s 43.4 percent, with 3.9 percent of voters still undecided.
The Republican runoff was triggered when neither candidate secured a majority in the March election. This race is nationally significant as it could impact the GOP’s direction in the Sun Belt state and determine the challenger for Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
President Donald Trump’s recent endorsement of Paxton adds another layer to the race. Despite this, 58.9 percent of respondents in the poll stated that Trump’s support did not influence their choice. Paxton holds a lead across several demographic groups, including men, women, millennials, Gen Zers, and white likely voters. Cornyn, meanwhile, has stronger support among Hispanic and Asian voters and is tied with Paxton among Black voters. Paxton leads in rural areas, while Cornyn has the edge in urban regions.
Cornyn’s team conveyed a strong message, saying, “Tomorrow, Texas voters will make an important decision about the future of our state. I’m asking for your vote to keep delivering conservative results for Texas families.” Paxton also urged voters on the platform X, encouraging support as the election concludes.
Trump further emphasized his endorsement via Truth Social, praising Paxton’s performance as Attorney General and criticizing Cornyn’s loyalty to his administration. “Vote for Ken Paxton on Tuesday, HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!!” Trump stated.
Several prominent Texas Republican figures, including Governor Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, and Senator Ted Cruz, have not endorsed any candidate. This lack of support could signify intraparty divisions.
The Quantus poll surveyed 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters, with a sample size of 936, from May 21 to May 23, and a margin of error of 3.5 percent. The runoff election is scheduled for Tuesday.
Other Poll Results
A closer look at other polls gives varied insights. A survey by Texas Southern University/YouGov reveals a neck-and-neck race between Talarico and either Cornyn or Paxton. Cornyn leads Talarico by a mere 1 percent, and Paxton and Talarico are tied. Libertarian Ted Brown garners minority support.
Another analysis from Texas Public Opinion Research places Talarico ahead in potential match-ups against both Republican contenders. Additionally, a poll from co/efficient shows Cornyn holding a slight lead over Paxton, though results fluctuate by gender and ethnic demographics. Cornyn maintains a strong lead among Hispanic voters in particular.
The data from these various polls provide a snapshot of a competitive political landscape in Texas, with future outcomes bearing significant implications.