A new study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America evaluated how messaging about North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate and former Governor Roy Cooper’s abortion record could influence voter support. The study suggested a shift in support towards Republican candidate Michael Whatley among North Carolina voters, especially when messages focused on federal abortion legislation.
The research indicated that messages about Cooper’s actions and record on abortion, including his veto of state-level abortion restrictions, could significantly impact voter preferences. Cooper’s veto of a 2023 law that banned most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy was a pivotal issue. His argument that the law would harm women and families did not prevent the Republican-led General Assembly from overriding his veto.
Marjorie Dannenfelser, President of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said that Cooper’s veto of the 12-week limit was widely unpopular and that highlighting this drove voter shifts. Another critical issue was Cooper’s veto of a bill intended to offer health care to babies born alive following attempted abortions.
“When it comes to the life issue, the issue that works best in North Carolina for the Senate race is that Gov. Cooper vetoed the 12 week limit,” said Dannenfelser.
The study, conducted by Evolving Strategies, used a randomized-controlled trial to test four abortion messages among 2,607 registered voters in North Carolina. The messaging was divided into categories: “Fed,” which criticized Cooper’s support for federal abortion legislation, “Record,” focusing on his gubernatorial record, and both “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” messages that highlighted Whatley’s pro-life stance.
The messages were effective, increasing the Republican vote margin by +1.7 to nearly +5 points. The “Fed” message was most impactful, shifting votes by +4.9 points, followed by the “Record” message at +3.2 points. The study suggests that targeted messaging could be even more influential, potentially moving the vote margin by +12 points or more among certain voter segments.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America stated that it had reached over 770,000 homes in North Carolina using a strategy designed to identify voters most likely to switch from Democrat to Republican. This approach does not consider party affiliation but focuses on how messages might alter a voter’s decision.