Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are set to compete for the Florida governor’s position. This general election usually leans towards a Republican victory. Florida’s political landscape has shifted to the right in recent years. President Trump won the state by around 13 points in 2024. Governor Ron DeSantis also secured reelection by about 20 points in 2022.
Republicans have a notable registration advantage over Democrats in Florida. A newly drawn congressional map further bolsters the GOP’s position. These factors make Donalds seem like a strong contender. Still, polling indicates Jolly might present a more competitive race than recent trends suggest. Democrats are hopeful, given that no Democrat has claimed the governor’s seat in over 25 years.
Donalds secured nearly 49% in his primary, while Jolly achieved close to 62%. The Associated Press called both races at 8 p.m. ET. Before the results, Jolly expressed confidence that he could win. He asserted the electoral cycle presents an opportunity for change. Both campaigns were contacted by Newsweek after their wins.
What Polls Show
A University of North Florida poll last month placed Donalds at 46% against Jolly’s 41%, a difference of 5 points. This gap is smaller than past Republican margins in statewide elections. The survey highlighted 5% preferring another candidate, 2% abstaining, and 6% undecided. It showed a tight race among non-party affiliates, with Donalds holding a slight one-point lead, 39% to 38%.
The poll surveyed 848 likely voters between July 8 and July 17, 2026. It had a margin of error of 3.8%. Another poll by Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute showed Donalds ahead by 7 points. Donalds had 45% compared to Jolly’s 38%, with 17% undecided or preferring another. This survey included 1,026 likely voters from July 20 to July 26, 2026.
A Stetson University poll also showed Donalds leading by 7%, with 47% to Jolly’s 40%. The poll included 848 likely voters between March 25 and April 13, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.1%.
Craig Agranoff, a political science professor, remarked the general election could be difficult for Jolly to win. Florida’s recent trend solidly favors Republicans. He emphasized the importance of turnout and local issues. The fundamentals seem to favor Republicans, but a close race remains a possibility.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets heavily favor Donalds. They consider him the frontrunner due to Florida’s Republican lean and his advantages in fundraising and recognition. On the prediction site Kalshi, Republicans had an 83% chance of winning, while Democrats stood at 21%. Polymarket reflected similar odds for Republicans.
Donalds benefits from Trump’s endorsement and a national profile. Jolly faces the challenge of trying to win statewide as a Democrat. The gap between polling data and prediction markets highlights the uncertainty. Polls suggest Jolly is close, but predictions see Donalds as the likely victor. The Cook Political Report marks the race as a Solid Republican win.
Recent Political Makeup of Florida
Despite the challenges, Democrats see potential in Florida. They have achieved unexpected victories in state House districts Trump previously carried. These local successes do not directly translate to gubernatorial races but indicate possible Democratic gains. Jolly, a former Republican, could appeal to moderates and independents.
Overcoming Florida’s Republican lean would require Democrats to unite behind Jolly. They need to attract independents and some Republican voters. The UNF poll’s five-point margin shows it’s feasible but challenging. Donalds remains the favorite unless Jolly consistently leads in polls. If Jolly narrows the gap, Florida’s 2026 governor race could become a key focus nationally.