A map illustrating the historical likelihood of snow-covered ground on December 25 highlights how an El Niño winter could create a stark divide between states where a white Christmas is almost certain and others where snow remains unlikely. The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Historical data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) shows the highest odds in northern states, mountainous regions, and Alaska, where snowpack is usually established well before Christmas.
Snow Coverage Across the United States
A white Christmas is not guaranteed across much of the U.S. According to the NWS map, odds diminish significantly in the South, Gulf Coast, and Southeast, where temperatures are often too warm to maintain snow cover in late December. Weather experts are closely watching the possible development of a strong El Niño, a climate pattern marked by above-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. El Niño can alter jet streams and affect temperature and precipitation across North America during winter.
El Niño’s Influence on Weather Patterns
“In a traditional El Niño pattern, the areas that favor a white Christmas are the higher elevations of the western states,” AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers stated. “December during traditional El Niños is typically warmer than the historical average, reducing the chances for a white Christmas in the eastern United States.”
Understanding Super El Niño
A super El Niño denotes an exceptionally strong version of this climate pattern, occurring when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than average, affecting global weather patterns. Strong El Niño events can shift the jet stream, altering temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns across the U.S.
NWS’s latest outlook suggests a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during fall and winter 2026-27, with a 69% chance that it will reach historic intensity, surpassing previous records since 1950. While the term “super El Niño” is unofficial, the NWS describes it as “very strong.” In the U.S., El Niño’s impacts are usually most noticeable from late fall through winter, peaking between December and February.
El Niño’s Impact on Snowfall Distribution
Although some forecasters observe the possibility of a strong El Niño developing this year, the NWS has yet to release an official winter outlook detailing expected impacts on U.S. weather and snowfall patterns. Historically, stronger El Niño events often bring stormier conditions to the southern U.S. while causing above-average temperatures in the northern regions. This means states with high odds for a white Christmas might see those chances decrease if warmer air dominates in December.
However, several states remain strong bets due to their cold climates and existing snow cover. Alaska is the most reliable for a white Christmas, as are high-elevation regions in western states like California, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and New Mexico. Meanwhile, northern states such as Minnesota and North Dakota might face lower-than-average probabilities, along with Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire, as El Niño influences winter weather.
The Great Lakes region sits in more of a middle ground. States like Wisconsin and Michigan often benefit from lake-effect snow, but warmer-than-normal conditions linked to a strong El Niño could complicate forecasts.
The Takeaway for This Winter
For southern states, prospects are considerably lower, regardless of El Niño. Although rare winter storms can occasionally cover parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia in snow, such events are uncommon and hard to predict months in advance.
The overarching theme from the map is the continued significance of long-term climatology. States that typically build a deep snowpack in December remain prime locations for a postcard-worthy Christmas scene, even with El Niño affecting temperatures and storm paths.
As winter approaches, meteorologists will better understand how atmospheric conditions are evolving. For now, residents wishing for snow on Christmas may consider looking northward, where history shows the odds are favorable.