In September 1943, the First Canadian Division executed a bold attack on Potenza, Italy, aiding British and American forces in turning a potential defeat into victory. Today, questions arise about whether Canada’s military could again make such a notable contribution alongside U.S. forces in major combat operations. Currently, the answer is no, primarily because the army has been tailored for multinational coalition tasks rather than large-scale combat since the Cold War ended.
During the unipolar moment post-Cold War, this approach worked. Middle powers, including Canada, prioritized peacekeeping and counterinsurgency. That period has ended, demanding transformation toward a battle-ready force. Ottawa’s plan, Inflection Point 2025, aims to adapt the army for sustained combat against significant adversaries. Yet, the plan remains unfulfilled without substantial investment in recruitment, equipment, and training to avoid merely restructuring existing hollow units.
Investment barriers are significant. Recruitment targets include resolving a shortfall of 3,000 soldiers and adding 8,500 personnel by 2040. These are projected figures. Historically, Canada struggles with recruiting and retaining necessary personnel.
Procurement is another hurdle. Effective deployment needs top-tier equipment. Canada’s procurement system, recently modified, still prioritizes domestic job creation and diversification from U.S. industries over timely delivery of military needs.
Sustainment presents further challenges. Creating supply chains capable of supporting a division in combat is tough. At Ukraine War expenditure levels, Canada might deplete vital munitions swiftly, with replenishment taking years.
Doctrinal adaptation is slow, reflecting broader NATO hesitance. This stagnation risks maintaining under-equipped formations without the resilience envisioned in Inflection Point.
The importance extends beyond Ottawa, impacting Washington too. Canadian forces, crucial in historic conflicts like WWII, remain vital to U.S. military success abroad. A future American victory might hinge on Canadian units ready to assist, akin to their role in Potenza.
Currently, Canada must ensure its army surpasses the inflection point to avoid stumbling during critical moments in future battles.
Andrew Latham is an international relations professor at Macalester College, St. Paul, Minn., and a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy.