The Current Situation in the Strait of Hormuz
Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked about Iran’s diminished control over the Strait of Hormuz during a speech in Athens. According to Kpler, a ship-tracking firm, 16.5 million barrels of crude oil left the Persian Gulf in September. This matches the prewar average, excluding Iran. U.S. sanctions and blockade have almost stopped Iran’s oil exports. Yet, attacks on tankers in the strait have peaked during the ongoing seven-month conflict.
On October 3 to 6, Kpler recorded only seven vessels crossing the strait, the lowest since July 23. Before the conflict, 125 ships crossed daily. This reflects the ongoing tensions. The United States has effectively controlled the dispute over the strait, preventing Iran from blocking oil shipments. However, the situation seems far from peaceful.
The Shift in Strategy
Iran’s inability to completely shut the strait doesn’t stop it from increasing the cost and uncertainty of crossings. The U.S. naval mission cannot withdraw, as stability remains elusive. This scenario has parallels to the prolonged conflict in Iraq, where U.S. forces faced an extended insurgency following conventional warfare.
The oil trade is slowly recovering, but it remains a reconstruction rather than a return to normal. Currently, 40% of the region’s crude exits without crossing the strait through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a rise from 17% before the conflict. U.S. warships have supported this through Project Freedom since May, leading to a recovery described as “lumpy rather than linear.”
Ongoing Threats and Changing Tactics
Recent attacks continue to highlight the persisting threat. The Joint Maritime Information Center reported attacks on five merchant vessels, including LNG carriers, resulting in injuries and disruptions. An additional tanker was hit by drones near Qatar on October 7, the first within the Gulf since last month. This underscores the threat classified as “severe,” likely associated with Iran.
Despite these challenges, the new strategy reroutes oil effectively. Crude crossing the strait decreased by 27% from the previous week, according to Kpler, but exports via the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea are higher than prewar levels, maintaining overall stability.
Geopolitical Implications
Iran is unable to completely stop oil flow but can increase its costs. The country is focused on a long-term, low-level conflict marked by increased ship attacks and regional disruptions. Drones from Iraq previously halted Saudi Arabia’s main pipeline last month, hinting at Iran’s involvement.
Experts like Ahmed S. Hashim emphasize Iran’s adaptability, using a decentralized defense approach. Escalation is a route Iran cannot fully pursue without an agreement. Rosemary Kelanic describes this as asymmetric guerrilla warfare, involving tactics that prove difficult to completely neutralize.
Assessing the U.S. Position
Analysts argue that the conflict’s ongoing nature prevents it from being labeled a victory. Rosemary Kelanic notes the battle for control over the strait can persist indefinitely, with Iran utilizing current technologies to launch attacks on tankers. Mona Yacoubian describes the U.S.’s current strategy as a temporary fix that Iran could potentially disrupt with further strikes.
The analogy with Iraq suggests that despite differences, drones become the modern equivalent of roadside bombs, complicating full resolution. Nate Swanson commends U.S. Central Command’s operational success but questions the ability to translate these gains into strategic victories.
The Path Forward
Nate Swanson identifies three main dynamics: pressure on Iran, potential Iranian escalation, and the U.S.’s ability to sustain its costly mission amid political constraints. The political timeline, including upcoming elections, adds urgency to the situation. President Trump’s recent pledges indicate that a significant escalation is rated at 35% this year, with a prolonged standoff at 55% likelihood, according to Eurasia Group.
A potential deal or de-escalation could stabilize the situation temporarily, but ongoing concerns about a renewed full-scale war remain. Kelanic observes that a regime collapse in Iran could lead to further instability, impacting global oil markets. The shifting military assets like the USS Abraham Lincoln revisit historical parallels, suggesting that insurgencies follow unpredictable timelines.