Serge Schmemann, a former Moscow bureau chief, provides insights into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, focusing on the significant shift in the war’s dynamics. Initially, in 2022, the emphasis was on providing Ukraine with artillery and tanks to counter Russian advances. Now, into its fifth year, the focus has shifted to what President Volodymyr Zelensky describes as a ‘battle in the sky,’ marking a decisive phase for both Ukraine and the West.
Stalemate on the Ground
The ground war remains deadlocked. While Russia continues to make territorial gains in Ukraine, progress is excruciatingly slow and comes at a high cost. Reports indicate that Ukraine inflicted close to 40,000 casualties on Russian forces in June alone. This corresponds to about 1,300 casualties per square kilometer of territory Russia attempted to seize or infiltrate, as per the Institute for the Study of War. The attrition rate has dramatically increased, being 19 times higher than it was the previous year. Ukrainian forces are effectively slowing Russian advances while causing substantial losses.
Aerial Combat Takes Center Stage
The aerial battle does not seek to claim land but is a campaign of attrition aimed at reducing the enemy’s military capacity and morale. Russia continuously attacks Ukraine with drones and missiles, while Ukraine uses enhanced long-range drones to repel Russia’s naval forces in the Black Sea and conduct strikes on logistical targets deep within Russia, including oil facilities and military bases. These actions have visibly impacted Russian urban centers, exemplified by gas lines in Moscow and refinery fires in Omsk. Similarly, Ukraine faces devastating missile attacks, contributing to civilian casualties and property destruction.
Zelensky emphasized the significance of controlling the air, stating, “If you stop the enemy on the battlefield, if you stop the war on land, and if you deny him dominance at sea … then the next battlefield becomes the sky.”
Challenges for Ukraine
One of the critical issues for Ukraine is acquiring adequate defense systems to counter Russian missile attacks. After the U.S. used a significant number of Patriot interceptor missiles in Iran, few remain available to aid Ukraine. During a concentrated Russian attack on July 6, Ukraine successfully intercepted drones and cruise missiles but failed to stop a ballistic missile due to insufficient interceptors. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia produces approximately 60 Iskander missiles per month, which remain a severe threat.