Mike Lindell, CEO of MyPillow, faces considerable hurdles in winning Minnesota’s Republican primary. Despite his claims of a favorable outcome, polling, betting odds, and election forecasts indicate a tough path ahead.
Background and Candidacy
Lindell, a vocal supporter of former President Trump and his unfounded assertions about the 2020 election, announced his gubernatorial run in December 2025. His campaign began amid renewed national interest in allegations of fraud within Minnesota’s welfare programs.
January brought a surprise when incumbent Governor Tim Walz opted not to run for a third term. This decision opened the field to various Democratic and Republican hopefuls, with the primary election set for August 11, 2026.
Primary Polling and Betting Odds
Despite internal campaign claims of success, the external data casts doubt on Lindell’s prospects. His campaign’s May survey, conducted by Big Data Poll, placed him slightly ahead with 21.3% against Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth’s 19.4%. The poll involved 1,236 registered voters and had a margin of error of 2.8%. Trump’s hypothetical endorsement could boost Lindell to 35.9%.
However, independent verification remains absent. In contrast, an early-year survey by Peak Insights for FiftyPlusOne showed Lindell at 18% and Demuth at 17%. Prediction markets reveal a preference for Demuth, with Polymarket suggesting a 64% likelihood of her winning, against 22% for Lindell. Kalshi’s predictions show similar figures.
General Election Prospects
Even if Lindell triumphs in the primary, a general election victory appears unlikely. Minnesota has consistently leaned Democratic in statewide races since 2006 and hasn’t supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. Recent elections have seen Democrats winning by narrow margins. Kamala Harris captured Minnesota by 4 points in 2024, Biden by 7 points in 2020, and Clinton by under 2 points in 2016.
Polls show Democrats maintaining a strong lead. An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters suggested that Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar would defeat Lindell with 52.5% to 31.5%. Similarly, a SurveyUSA poll of 575 registered voters also favored Klobuchar, 52% to 32%. Forecasters reflect this Democratic advantage, with Cook Political Report labeling the race Solid Democratic and Sabato’s Crystal Ball categorizing it as Safe Democratic.
Context of the Race
This political race occurs amidst heightened attention on Minnesota, partly due to significant welfare fraud linked to the nonprofit Feeding Our Future. The federal investigation estimates a $250 million cost to taxpayers. Such issues, along with broader political tensions, have intensified national scrutiny of the state’s governance and policy discussions.