California Faces Potentially Intense Weather Due to El Niño
El Niño has officially arrived, and California might be in for a challenging winter season. Recent oceanic changes provide scientists with increased certainty of a powerful El Niño developing later this year, according to Rong-Gong Lin II.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center announced a 97% likelihood that El Niño will be “strong” or “very strong” during a three-month timeframe ending this December.
El Niño has historically been linked to some of California’s most destructive winter seasons. During past events, downtown Los Angeles experienced rainfall significantly above average — including instances where the annual total was more than double its norm, as occurred during the El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
Understanding El Niño
Typically emerging every two to seven years and persisting for nine to twelve months, El Niño is a climate pattern recognized for its impact on global weather. It is characterized by warmer waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing rainfall and drought across the globe. This phenomenon also heightens the likelihood of heat waves, both on land and at sea, further exacerbated by human-related climate change.
Potential Impacts
El Niño tends to generate various weather impacts globally, contingent upon the season. As warm waters expand off Mexico, Central America, and northern South America, jet-stream energy in the atmosphere often leads to increased storm activity across the southern United States during winter. Regions like Southern California, Texas, and Florida typically face more stormy weather than usual.
In Southern California, this could translate to a heightened chance of above-average rainfall, which raises concerns about landslides and high-tide flooding.
The intense El Niño of 2015-16 caused extreme coastal erosion along numerous California beaches. This year’s El Niño is projected to extend an ongoing marine heatwave unaffected by El Niño, off Southern California.
Impact on Marine Life
Concerns abound regarding the potential effects of warmer ocean waters on marine life. Nate Jaros from the Aquarium of the Pacific notes that increased sightings of tropical or warm subtropical species, including sharks, may arise.
Marine mammals and migratory species may move closer to shores to follow their food sources. In prior strong El Niños, decreased plankton levels — a crucial food source for marine animals — and increased chances of harmful algal blooms were noted.
Additionally, a reduction in productivity among California sea lions has been observed during past El Niños, resulting in smaller pups.
Weather Effects and Observations
- A ‘super’ El Niño is predicted, with significant potential for extraordinary weather changes.
- A strong El Niño is highly probable, affecting California weather patterns.
- California may face aggressive weather impacts as El Niño progresses.