Republican Byron Donalds is running for governor in Florida. He has adjusted his campaign strategy, removing several references to former President Donald Trump from his campaign website. This change comes as polls indicate a tightening race against Democrat David Jolly.
Donalds’ Alignment with Trump
Donalds has historically aligned himself closely with Trump and received his endorsement in the GOP primary. However, facing a potentially competitive race against Jolly, a former Republican who distanced himself from the party over its association with Trump, Donalds’ campaign made adjustments.
Florida has been leaning more conservative in recent elections. However, recent polls show a closer race than anticipated. Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. However, Democrats aim to leverage Trump’s declining national approval ratings to compete in traditionally Republican areas like Florida.
Campaign Website Changes
Donalds’ campaign website underwent changes as of September 22. The new version leads with the slogan, “Fighting to defend the Florida dream,” showcasing a video of Donalds with his family. It highlights his stance on issues such as affordability, healthcare, and education.
A previous version of the website, as of September 3, prominently featured Trump’s endorsement. The homepage then had a banner urging supporters to “Chip in to Support Trump Endorsed Byron Donalds,” with the phrase highlighted in red. The page contained several references to Trump’s endorsement, including a photograph of Donalds with his wife and a quote from Trump. In total, the webpage referred to Trump five times. The revised page has significantly fewer Trump references while still listing his endorsement among several from other prominent conservatives, such as Elon Musk and House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Competitiveness of the Race
There have been no official statements from Donalds’ campaign explaining the removal of Trump references. In response, Jolly noted Donalds’ previous support for Trump’s economic policies and anticipated they might campaign together in Florida.
A White House spokesperson told Newsweek that Trump remains a key leader and motivator for the Republican Party, seeking to maintain majorities in Congress.
Recent Polls and Trends
A recent poll by St. Pete Polls found a statistical tie between Donalds and Jolly. The survey of 913 likely voters from September 15 to September 17 had a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points. Donalds had 44%, while Jolly had 43%.
A Change Research poll gave Jolly a slight edge, with 47% compared to Donalds’ 44%. This poll involved 1,107 likely voters from September 7 to September 9. However, the James Madison Institute poll showed Donalds leading, with 45% to Jolly’s 38%, surveying 1,026 likely voters from July 20 to July 26. The University of North Florida poll also showed Donalds ahead by 5 points, with 46% to Jolly’s 41%, among 848 likely voters from July 8 to July 17.
Republicans’ Recalibration in Election Strategy
Some Republicans have begun distancing themselves from Trump as the midterms approach. Andy Barr of Kentucky and Young Kim from California removed Trump references from their websites. Representative María Elvira Salazar from Florida criticized Trump’s immigration policies. Ashley Hinson from Iowa also broke with Trump over international issues.
Current Trump Approval Ratings
Trump’s approval ratings have declined. An American Research Poll showed a low 29% approval, with 68% disapproving, surveying 1,100 adults from September 16 to September 20. The YouGov and The Economist poll showed 35% approval, while 62% disapproved, surveying 1,401 voters from September 18 to September 21. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated 32% approval, surveying 1,277 voters from September 17 to September 20.
Future Outlook
Political forecasters still see Donalds as having an advantage. The Cook Political Report lists the race as Likely Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it as Lean Republican. Jolly has refused to debate Donalds. More voting information is expected after October 4, according to the state office.