Nancy Mace’s Position in South Carolina’s Gubernatorial Primary
Representative Nancy Mace finds herself trailing other Republican candidates in the polls for the South Carolina gubernatorial primary. As the primary approaches on Election Day, Mace’s standing reflects the internal divisions within the Republican ranks regarding her ideological shifts and her rocky relationship with former President Donald Trump.
The race plays a critical role in determining the GOP’s direction, testing whether Republicans in this conservative stronghold are willing to elect a candidate who has distanced herself from Trump, who has endorsed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette. Republican Governor Henry McMaster is prohibited by term limits from running again, prompting several candidates, including Mace, Evette, Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson, to enter the race.
Current Polling and the Possibility of a Runoff
Recent polls indicate a tightly contested race as the June 9 primary nears. If no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, a runoff election will occur between the top two candidates on June 23. A closer look at the latest surveys reveals the competitive nature of the race:
- Co/Efficient: Conducted from June 2-4, involving 879 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.31%.
- The Tyson Group: Conducted from June 1-3, surveying 500 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.
- The Citadel: Conducted from May 21-31, engaging 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
Professor Robert Oldendick from the University of South Carolina remarked on the candidates’ similar platforms focused on eliminating state income tax and improving government efficiency. Evette and Wilson enjoy high name recognition due to their statewide positions.
Prediction Markets and Candidate Support
Prediction markets currently favor Evette following Trump’s endorsement on May 29. Trump’s endorsement underscored her loyalty throughout his campaign. On Kalshi, Evette has a 77% chance of winning, whereas Wilson has 17% and Mace 4.3%. Polymarket gives similar odds, with Evette at 73%, Wilson at 13%, and Mace at 4%.
These markets operate with traders buying and selling contracts linked to political outcomes. As conditions evolve, so do prices, reflecting trader sentiment. Though indicative, prediction markets may not always accurately forecast actual results.
Nancy Mace and Donald Trump: A Strained Relationship
Nancy Mace’s political trajectory in South Carolina has been marred by her tumultuous relationship with Trump. Initially a staunch supporter during his 2016 campaign and endorsed by him during her 2020 campaign, their relationship shifted notably after the January 6 Capitol riot. Mace criticized Trump’s role in the events, yet opted not to support impeachment.
During her 2022 reelection campaign, Trump backed a different candidate, Katie Arrington, calling Mace a RINO. Despite this, Mace secured renomination with 53% of the vote. By 2023, tensions had eased, and Mace expressed willingness to move forward for political unity.
By January 2024, Mace voiced her support for Trump’s return to the presidency. She endorsed him, reflecting her conservative credentials despite past disagreements. Trump’s choice to support Evette in the 2024 gubernatorial primary underscores the complexity of their political interactions.
The Democratic Perspective
Amidst national challenges for Trump, Democrats maintain modest hopes for the 2026 midterms. Analysts, however, do not expect significant competition in South Carolina’s gubernatorial race. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as safe for Republicans.
Kalshi gives Republicans a 91% chance and Polymarket a 92% chance of retaining the governorship. Oldendick projects Republican dominance, citing GOP fundraising prowess and name recognition. The state’s strong Republican leanings, demonstrated by Trump’s 18-point win in 2024, reinforce this outlook. South Carolina has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, and the gubernatorial race last saw a Democratic victory in 1998.