The race for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire is tightening as Democrat Chris Pappas’ lead against Republican John E. Sununu narrows. With midterm elections about four weeks away, a Rasmussen Reports poll reveals that 49 percent of likely voters support Pappas, while 44 percent back Sununu. This five-point gap is a change from last month’s 11-point difference, showing Pappas at 45 percent and Sununu at 34 percent.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement has left the seat open for November’s general election. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, suggesting it could go either way. Midterm elections generally serve as a reflection of the political climate and historically result in seat losses for the president’s party. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
In the 2024 presidential election, former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won New Hampshire over President Donald Trump by less than 3 percent. The state has not seen a Republican senator in over 15 years. Both Sununu and Pappas’ campaigns have been contacted for comment.
Poll Insights
The latest poll indicates that 3 percent would choose Edmond Laplante of the Constitution Party, while 4 percent remain unsure. Pappas garners 89 percent of Democratic support, 15 percent from Republicans, and 40 percent from unaffiliated voters. Sununu sees 84 percent of Republican backing, 8 percent from Democrats, and 44 percent from unaffiliated voters.
Pappas holds a strong lead among women, receiving 53 percent support compared to Sununu’s 33 percent. Among men, however, 53 percent prefer Sununu, while 42 percent support Pappas. Voters aged 65 and older favor Pappas with 58 percent, contrasting with those under 40 who lean towards Sununu.
The poll, conducted from October 2 to October 4, surveyed 979 likely voters in New Hampshire and has a margin of error of 3 percent. Rasmussen Reports, rated as “Lean Right” by AllSides, suggests a moderate alignment with conservative ideologies.
Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, commented on the situation. He notes, “Republicans have an opportunity in NH, though it remains narrow. Sununu closing a double-digit lead to 5 points aligns with the Cook rating of a toss-up. The Sununu name, ticket-splitting, and external funds provide the GOP a chance in a state known for gubernatorial and senatorial voting differences. A 5-point deficit with a month left isn’t victory. It’s competitive.”
Agranoff further stated, “The Senate battle extends beyond NH. Republicans need this or similar gains elsewhere offset potential losses. Continued narrowing puts it in majority calculations. Maintaining a 5-point lead signals caution, not guaranteed victory.”
Other Poll Results
A University of New Hampshire survey reports 50 percent of voters favor Pappas and 42 percent support Sununu. Laplante would receive 2 percent, and 4 percent remain undecided. Conducted from September 17 to September 21 with 1,418 likely voters, it carries a 2.6 percent margin of error.
An August poll showed Sununu leading with 45 percent, compared to Pappas’ 43 percent, with 5 percent choosing another candidate and 7 percent undecided. This poll’s results, although within the 2.3 percent margin of error, indicate a statistical tie.
A co/efficient poll last month had both candidates tied at 46 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Pappas’ favorability stood at 37 percent against a 51 percent unfavorable rating, while Sununu’s was 41 percent to 47 percent, respectively. The poll involved 958 likely voters and had a 3.15 percent margin of error.