Allan Lichtman has developed a new 10-point framework to evaluate presidential greatness, accompanying his upcoming book about transformative American leaders. Known for his accuracy in predicting elections with the Keys to the White House, Lichtman earned the nickname ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential politics. Over decades, his model has correctly predicted most U.S. presidential races. However, his reputation was challenged when he inaccurately forecasted Kamala Harris as the winner of the 2024 presidential election, which Donald Trump won.
From Predictions to Measuring Greatness
Lichtman’s new approach shifts from predicting outcomes to determining what constitutes historical greatness in a president. His book, called Great American Presidents: The Twelve Who Transformed the Nation, identifies twelve presidents whom he deems pivotal. He argued to Newsweek that the framework focuses on the consequence of presidential action rather than popularity or public opinion.
Lichtman presents the example of James K. Polk versus Dwight Eisenhower. Although Eisenhower ranks higher in expert surveys, Lichtman notes that Polk’s actions profoundly changed America by expanding its size. Eisenhower’s less significant transformative change aligns with the framework’s focus on consequence over esteem.
The Ten Keys Unveiled
The framework encompasses ten distinct keys. These include crisis leadership, transformational change, moral vision, stewardship of executive power, coalition building, institution building, diplomatic influence, and adaptability.
- The Crisis Key
- The Transformation Key
- The Moral Vision Key
- The Hidden Hand Key
- The Stewardship Key
- The Realignment Key
- The Institution Builder Key
- The Narrative Key
- The Diplomatic Pivot Key
- The Adaptability Key
Handling Presidential Failures
Lichtman emphasizes that only transformative leadership within democratic traditions merits greatness. This perspective excludes Richard Nixon and Donald Trump, despite their notable impacts. The Stewardship Key evaluates whether presidents responsibly expanded executive power, avoiding reckless overreach.
Lyndon B. Johnson serves as an example, whose major achievements in domestic reforms during his presidency are contrasted with the failures of the Vietnam War. Lichtman stresses that failures must be considered alongside successes for a thorough evaluation.
A Framework for Debate
Lichtman acknowledges that historians may interpret the framework differently, emphasizing the importance of structured judgment over formulaic calculations. He intends to create debates focusing on concrete historical criteria, rather than instinctual and subjective evaluations, allowing for diverse historical assessments.
Lack of Modern Presidents
The book asserts no president after Ronald Reagan currently qualifies as great. Lichtman explains that historical evaluation requires time to recognize a leader’s true impact. Changes in political dynamics, such as increasing partisan polarization and information silos due to social media, make consensus challenging.
Recent political environments require presidents to navigate complex challenges like geopolitical competition, terrorism, and climate issues with increased governmental responsibilities. As a consequence, presidents like George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama demonstrated competence but did not achieve transformative leadership.
Reflections on the 2024 Election
Lichtman distinguishes his new greatness framework from election forecasting, noting changes in historical assumptions due to polarization and misinformation. He considers whether the criteria for transformative leadership have evolved, affecting voters’ ability to assess presidential achievements accurately.
The framework asserts that evaluating presidential greatness involves understanding how leadership conditions have shifted, emphasizing the evolving requirements for a president to leave a significant impact on the nation.
Great American Presidents: The Twelve Who Transformed the Nation by Allan J. Lichtman will be released on September 22, 2026.
Newsweek’s reporting utilized Martyn, their AI assistant. For inquiries on this story, contact Newsweek editors Daniel Orton and Emma Lee-Sang.