In The Godfather, Don Vito Corleone warns that any harm to his son Michael will lead to blame on those present, not hiding behind coincidences. This scene serves as a reminder to not let attacks be wrapped in doubt or disguise.
Russia is reportedly preparing hybrid attacks on Eastern NATO allies. The West must adopt a direct approach, akin to Corleone’s, regarding Russian provocations. The presumption should be that if a drone or any sabotage act targets an Eastern European country, Vladimir Putin is accountable.
Historical approaches have relied on the presumption of innocence. However, Russia exploits this, using Western reluctance to act without public proof to its advantage. Russian tactics involve using proxies, political interference, and subterfuge to hide actions while still causing damage.
“I’m President of one of America’s most reliable allies. Here’s how we stand up to Russia.”
The West requires a reversal of its stance on suspicious activities. The Kremlin should be presumed responsible for actions threatening NATO or EU countries unless evidence suggests otherwise.
Germany accused Russia when an explosive-laden drone was found near Ukrainian planes. Moscow uses tactics to obscure responsibility, making a decisive response difficult. Our current approach allows Russia’s strategy to succeed.
Suspicion should lead to action. Events should prompt asymmetrical responses to Russian provocations. Symmetrical retaliation permits Putin to predict consequences as part of business, thus neutering deterrence.
The West’s responses should be unpredictable and targeted, impacting areas of value to Russia. Strategies should remain silent, preventing Russia from understanding Western capabilities. Putin operates behind uncertainty; the West must weaponize it too.
Judiciously respond to provocations, using intelligence assessments. Absolute certainty is rarely achievable in national security; demanding it only empowers aggressors.
Deterrence functions by ensuring adversaries anticipate consequences for their actions. While risking miscalculation, failing to act risks further escalation. The prognosis is clear: If serious misfortunes target nations under Putin’s watch, presume Russian orchestration and respond accordingly.