New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman is shrinking, according to a new poll from Siena University. The poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters, a decrease from a 52% to 32% advantage she had in June with registered voters.
Back in August 2022, at a similar point in her first gubernatorial race, Hochul held a 53% to 39% lead over her opponent, Lee Zeldin. She eventually won that race by a margin of six points, according to Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
Bruce Blakeman, the current Nassau County Executive, commented on the poll results, stating that “All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul.” He criticized the poll’s accuracy, implying that it had been consistently incorrect. Blakeman argued that Hochul’s governance, marked by high taxes and rising crime, negatively affected her popularity.
The latest Siena University Poll, conducted between August 3 and 6 with 811 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. It indicates that likely voters believe Hochul would manage affordability and housing supply issues more effectively than Blakeman.
In terms of public safety and addressing undocumented immigrants, voters were divided, with Hochul leading slightly.
Both candidates still have strong support within their respective parties, with Hochul ahead among Democrats and Blakeman leading among Republicans. Independent voters slightly favor Blakeman.
In geographic terms, Hochul dominates in New York City but trails in the downstate suburbs and runs evenly with Blakeman upstate. Hochul also leads among women, Latinos, and Black voters.
The poll also assessed perceptions of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) for the first time. Results showed a negative favorability rating overall. Democrats view the DSA positively, whereas both Republicans and independents hold unfavorable opinions.