South Carolina Republicans are voting Tuesday in a special primary to determine their candidate for the U.S. Senate seat, long held by the late Lindsey Graham. As Election Day approaches, the competition remains highly uncertain.
The Leading Candidates
Interim Senator Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, has gained a significant lead in some polls but maintains only a narrow edge in others. Meanwhile, Representative Ralph Norman has led in at least one recent poll outright.
With nine candidates vying for the position and no clear leader, a runoff on August 25 could occur under South Carolina law. This would happen if no candidate secures a majority of the votes.
Darline Graham’s Campaign
Darline Graham was relatively unknown in South Carolina politics until Governor Henry McMaster appointed her last month to take over her brother’s seat. Despite being new to electoral politics, she has been part of Lindsey Graham’s political career behind the scenes.
Graham frames her campaign as a response to former President Donald Trump’s invitation to serve, instead of personal ambition. During her first appearance in Lexington, she expressed that she never sought political life herself, but aimed to further Trump’s agenda.
Trump endorsed her quickly, calling her the ideal candidate to continue her brother’s legacy. The Republican Senatorial Committee supports her, running ads in her favor.
At a debate on Monday, Graham aligned herself with Trump on key issues like border policies. She expressed openness to ending the Senate filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act and advocated for transparency in health care pricing, citing financial burdens on families.
Poll Dynamics
Polls show no definitive leader. Norman, a veteran U.S. House member, presents himself as an experienced conservative. Representative Russell Fry aims for a runoff spot, while former Governor Mark Sanford hopes his name recognition will help.
Recent surveys present mixed outcomes. A Quantus Insights poll of 636 likely voters had Graham at 33% support, with Norman and Fry tied at 20%, and Sanford at 17%. However, some trackers do not consider Quantus a top-tier pollster.
A co/efficient poll placed Graham at 30%, with Fry at 16% and Norman at 15%. In hypothetical runoffs, Graham edged Norman, while Fry led Graham.
Emerson College Polling found Norman at 22%, with Graham trailing at 19%. Undecided voters held a consequential portion of the polls.
Prediction markets like Kalshi suggested higher confidence in Graham, with her at 48% likelihood of winning. Fry and Norman were tied at lower odds.
Challenges and Prospects
Much of the race centers on whether Darline Graham’s family name and Trump’s endorsement can compensate for her limited political experience.
Graham spent years in state government, steering clear of the political stage. As interim senator, she remained mostly in Washington rather than on the campaign trail.
She argued that her priority was serving in D.C., telling reporters she wished she could campaign more actively. She partook in forums and backed filibuster changes for stricter voting laws but generally kept a low media profile.
The Republican nominee will likely have a significant edge in November. South Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 1998, and Trump won the state decisively in 2024.
Democratic contender Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, awaits the Republican decision. Whether settled Tuesday or heading to a runoff, Graham, Norman, or Fry must prepare for a November face-off.