Pete Buttigieg expressed to podcast host Steven Bartlett on The Diary of a CEO that he is “more inclined than not” to run for president again in 2028. This marks a significant shift from his previously cautious responses. The former transportation secretary, who came fifth in the 2020 Democratic primary before Joe Biden secured the nomination, noted that fatherhood had influenced his decision-making process. He and his husband, Chasten Buttigieg, adopted twins in 2021.
“That’s changed all of my equations,” Buttigieg said. “It’s just something that you really sit with and take seriously, which you should.”
Though he did not commit to running, early polling data suggests Buttigieg could be a strong contender in the 2028 Democratic field.
Polling Trends
Buttigieg has consistently topped or placed near the top in numerous major 2028 Democratic primary polls this year. However, the timing of each poll is as crucial as the results. A Manhattan Institute poll from early July placed him third with 13% support, behind Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. An Emerson College poll later that month showed Buttigieg leading with 19%.
A survey by the Public Sentiment Institute among Michigan voters indicated Buttigieg had a significant lead, with 24.2% support. These numbers contrasted with Harris’s declining figures, which had dropped from earlier high levels both nationally and in Michigan.
Not all polls have shown consistent support for Buttigieg. A UC Berkeley Citrin Center-Politico survey of California voters placed him fourth behind Harris, Newsom, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez earlier in the year.
Prediction Markets Lag Behind
Despite Buttigieg’s strong polling performance, prediction markets are less convinced of his candidacy. In early August, markets priced Gavin Newsom as the favorite for the Democratic nomination, with Buttigieg trailing in single digits.
Positioning Within the Democratic Field
The question of whether Buttigieg is an outsider or establishment candidate is central. Figures like Ocasio-Cortez have rallied under an anti-establishment sentiment. Buttigieg has balanced both perspectives, praising figures like Zohran Mamdani while retaining his 2020 image of a small-town mayor challenging the political establishment.
Republican strategist Colin Coley suggests that a successful Democratic nominee would not be controlled by Washington, while others argue Buttigieg’s “shadow campaign” has struggled against a leftward-shifting party base.
Lessons from 2020
Buttigieg’s early strength in 2028 reflects his 2020 rise as a little-known mayor gaining national traction. He succeeded in Iowa and New Hampshire, demonstrating appeal among voters, despite limited experience.
This history influences his current standings. Voter attention in states like New Hampshire remains strong, reflecting his potential appeal. Democratic operatives recognize his early numbers as significant indicators, though markets and other polls still hint at a crowded field.
Buttigieg has been active on platforms like Fox News, where he engages with hosts on various political issues, distinguishing himself among Democratic contenders. Strategist Steve Schale describes Buttigieg’s unique ability to critique the Trump presidency while offering an optimistic vision for Democrats.