The U.S. military has temporarily stopped its airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of increasing bombardment. This pause comes as diplomatic efforts continue in hopes of preventing a full-scale war. Talks between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, although the outcome remains uncertain in this volatile conflict, which reaches five months tomorrow.
President Donald Trump has both threatened additional strikes while advocating for continued negotiations. Concerns have arisen about potential political impacts, particularly rising gas prices, which may affect Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. The planned meeting next week in Washington between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump introduces further uncertainty. Israel, which joined the U.S. in initiating the conflict on February 28, has not participated in recent American attacks following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial passageway for 20% of global oil shipping.
Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that Israel’s absence might suggest the intention to limit the conflict. Singh, who previously served as the senior Middle East director on the National Security Council under George W. Bush, expressed caution in interpreting the break in hostilities. He described the pause as potentially significant if prolonged, but uncertain in nature—whether operational or a diplomatic allowance.
A regional official involved in mediation efforts noted active diplomatic activities have encouraged a pause in hostilities. Both sides show interest in returning to an interim ceasefire arrangement. The current negotiation aims for Iran to facilitate vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with reduced restrictions. This information was provided anonymously due to authorization limitations.
Iran initially disrupted the Persian Gulf waterway by targeting tankers and freighters, causing oil prices to rise. American dissatisfaction with the conflict may jeopardize some Republican lawmakers. Following a ceasefire agreement signed in June, control of the strait became contested. Iran demanded vessels use routes near its coast with potential fees. Meanwhile, ships increasingly navigated the southern route under U.S. oversight when Iran attacked these vessels. U.S. strikes targeted Iran’s coastal defenses to hinder ship attacks.
The Trump administration expanded its target area to include bridges and infrastructure in southern and central Iran, aiming to press Iran back to negotiations. Singh emphasized understanding Iranian diplomatic signals is essential: Have these messages shifted? Do they indicate increased willingness to negotiate?
The U.S. faces challenges with Iran’s fractured leadership, as different factions contest control, complicating compromise fears. Leaders may worry perceived concessions could weaken their authority.
Both nations have economic incentives to reopen the strait, although their terms for control differ. Singh remarked that achieving stability on these terms is vital for prolonged peace, suggesting negotiation through dialogue and force will persist.
Trump Balances Threats with Diplomacy
Despite reduced fighting, regional tensions remain elevated. Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, retaliating against Saudi airstrikes on Hodeida. They claim to have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial route for Saudi oil exports, especially following Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Meanwhile, the U.S. enforces a blockade of Iranian ports, citing the disabling of a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman attempting to breach restrictions. Trump has threatened Iran yet emphasizes diplomacy. When asked about exit strategies, he mentioned two approaches: continue dismantling Iran piece by piece, choose faster means, or negotiate, which is underway.
Trump expressed skepticism about Iran’s readiness to negotiate, but noted increasing seriousness over time. Discussing Iran’s position in the Oval Office, he highlighted economic pressures as a motivating factor.
Friday saw him meeting with national security aides to decide on continuing current strategies or escalating attacks. An official reported that no U.S. strikes occurred overnight after 13 nights of consecutive action.
Trump stressed his lack of urgency to resolve the situation before the elections, acknowledging voter dissatisfaction but prioritizing correct resolution over electoral considerations. “Despite election concerns, I’m not in a hurry,” he asserted, emphasizing a strategic approach.
This report includes contributions from Magdy in Cairo and Matthew Lee of the Associated Press.