A new analysis from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals a notable decline in support from independent voters for President Donald Trump during his second term. This trend is particularly evident among independents without a college degree, once a strong component of his support base.
Shifting Views Among Independents
Initially, around half of independents without college education viewed Trump positively during the 2024 election period. However, this figure dropped to approximately one-quarter by the spring. Historically, there was a significant education gap, with non-college independents favoring Trump more than those with college degrees. Now, both groups generally view him unfavorably, indicating a shift in perceptions across educational lines.
The research compiled and analyzed nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls from July 2024 to April 2026. These polls provide a detailed look at how Trump’s support evolved through his second term, highlighting critical periods such as the early days of his presidency, the passing of key legislation, and significant political events like the government shutdown and conflict in Iran. The data depicts a steady decline in Trump’s popularity among independents throughout his presidency.
Impact on Diverse Groups
Several key demographic groups who leaned towards Trump in the 2024 presidential election, including Black and Hispanic independents, also show decreasing support. More Americans identify as independents now than ever before. This demographic shift propelled Trump in the 2024 election, but erosion of this support may pose challenges for Trump and the Republican Party in upcoming midterm elections. These elections often serve as a barometer for public satisfaction with the ruling party’s performance.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, pointed out that while partisan views have remained relatively constant, independents continue to adjust their views in response to current events, leading to their declining support.
Initial Enthusiasm Fades
Independent voters were crucial in Trump’s return to leadership, perceived as the stronger choice on economic issues at the time. However, polling data indicates that their enthusiasm waned quickly after his re-election. Specifically, the proportion of positive views among non-college independents decreased from 48% pre-election to 31% during Trump’s first 100 days back in office, eventually dropping to one-quarter during subsequent economic and political challenges. College-educated independents maintained a lower, but more stable, opinion of Trump.
Hispanic and Younger Voters’ Declining Support
Historically integral to Trump’s coalition, Americans without a college degree, and groups like Hispanic voters, contributed to his 2024 victory. Independent voters were split almost equally in backing Trump or his opponent, Kamala Harris, during the last election. Nonetheless, Trump’s appeal has significantly waned, particularly among Hispanic independents, with favorable views falling from nearly half around the election to approximately 15% last fall, and settling around a quarter by spring.
Younger independents, in particular, have become less supportive of Trump, whereas those aged 60 and older have shown more consistency in their views.
Economic Concerns and Independent Voters
Economic issues, such as inflation and related expenses on essentials like food and gas, are central to independents’ growing disenchantment with Trump. Polling indicates that a significant portion of Trump-supporting independents in 2024 cited inflation as their key voting concern. As inflation persists, driven by high gas prices amidst ongoing international conflicts, economic frustrations continue to grow among independents.
An AP-NORC survey conducted in April highlighted that around 3 in 10 independents were increasingly worried about affording groceries and gas. Only a minority of independents currently approve of Trump’s economic management, a consistent sentiment since the start of his second term.
This analysis involved 21 AP-NORC surveys covering 4,836 independent voters, focusing on those who do not align with either major political party.