Wisconsin’s Competitive Governor Race
Democratic candidate David Crowley holds a slight lead over Republican Tom Tiffany in the Wisconsin governor race. The poll, conducted by Platform Communications, is the first since both candidates secured their primary victories earlier in August. This race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the 2026 midterm elections as incumbent Governor Tony Evers is retiring, leaving the seat open in this pivotal swing state.
Current Poll Results
The recent poll indicates Crowley leading by 4 points, with a 48% preference compared to Tiffany’s 44%. Crowley enjoys a +17 net favorability rating, while Tiffany has a -5 rating. These numbers are based on a survey of 500 likely voters conducted from August 12-13, 2026.
Expert Opinions
Political science professor Henrik Schatzinger notes that while Crowley’s lead is not substantial, it positions him well for the general election. He highlights that Democrats have recently performed well in statewide races. Schatzinger also mentions that the Democratic Party has handled post-primary relationships positively, which may help in mobilizing voter turnout in November.
Candidates’ Responses
“The more voters see his record, the clearer the choice becomes: he failed Milwaukee County, and we cannot let him fail Wisconsin.” — Tom Tiffany
Tom Tiffany emphasizes his focus on lowering taxes and reducing costs for Wisconsin families, contrasting Crowley’s past fiscal policies in Milwaukee County. Crowley counters by calling Tiffany’s agenda too extreme for the state and highlights his plans to lower costs, fund schools, and create a brighter future.
Additional Polls and Prediction Markets
Additional polls support Crowley’s modest lead. A GBAO poll shows him up by 3 points, and another from RMG Research reveals a similar margin. In prediction markets, Crowley holds a strong chance of winning, with a 75% probability on Kalshi and 78% on Polymarket.
Focus on Data Centers
Data centers have emerged as a central issue in the campaign. Crowley has faced criticism from the GOP over his stance. He argues against a moratorium on data centers, describing them as a growth opportunity for Wisconsin. However, public opinion has shifted against them, posing a challenge.
Tiffany has used Crowley’s past comments on data centers to target him through attack ads. Crowley has suggested local communities be allowed to decide on data centers, with certain guardrails in place.
Primary Race Over Francesca Hong
David Crowley’s primary victory over Francesca Hong was unexpected as Hong had initially been the frontrunner. Concerns about Hong’s electability led to Crowley’s resurgence. Her past social media statements drew criticism and affected her campaign negatively.
The Importance of Wisconsin
Wisconsin remains a key swing state, with narrow margins in recent elections. The state’s political landscape has seen shifts, with Republicans gaining ground in rural areas while Democrats perform well in urban and suburban regions.
The last Republican governor was elected in 2014. The current race is viewed as a toss-up by The Cook Political Report, though Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggests a Democratic lean.
The coming months will see both candidates working hard to sway voters in this highly contested state.