Vice President JD Vance praised former President Donald Trump’s economic policies in Brewer, Maine, alongside former Republican Governor Paul LePage. LePage seeks a political return by running in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District against Democrat Matthew Dunlap. Jared Golden, the current Democratic Representative holding the seat, is retiring at the end of his term rather than running for a fifth term. The district leans Republican, having supported Trump by 9 points in the 2024 election, yet has also elected Democrats like Golden, reflecting Maine’s independent political nature.
Republicans, confident in LePage’s potential to win the seat with its conservative tilt, face a competitive race. Vance emphasized LePage’s commitment to constituents during his remarks at a defense manufacturing facility in Brewer, a suburb of Bangor. Vance said, “A guy like Paul LePage. He is not a go-along-to-get-along politician. He is an independent-minded guy, but he is independent for you.”
The race is set to be one of the most competitive in the upcoming midterms. LePage is backed by strong name recognition due to his tenure as governor from 2011 to 2019. Dunlap, currently the state auditor and former secretary of state, has also held prominent positions.
Harry Burke, Dunlap’s campaign manager, stated to Newsweek that Maine voters “understand the disaster Paul LePage would be in Congress.” He cited LePage’s past support for Medicaid cuts, tariffs that increased prices, and foreign policies harming affordability as reasons for concern. “DC’s establishment is so worried about LePage’s failing campaign that they sent Speaker Johnson and Vice President Vance to bail him out,” Burke added. “It won’t work because Mainers want a fighter like Matt Dunlap who will lower costs and protect Social Security and Medicaid.”
Newsweek reached out to LePage’s campaign for commentary via email.
Poll Analysis: LePage vs. Dunlap
Recent independent polls are scarce, though some internal surveys have been conducted. An independent poll by the University of New Hampshire in February indicated LePage leading by a thin margin, 47 percent to 46 percent, with a survey of 522 likely voters and a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. In July, a Dunlap internal poll by Tulchin Research showed Dunlap slightly ahead, 49 percent to 48 percent, with 600 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.99 percentage points. The NRCC-sponsored co/efficient poll in April had LePage leading significantly, 50 percent to 40 percent, based on a survey of 918 likely voters.
Market Predictions and District Shift
Prediction markets currently favor LePage. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, he holds a 61 and 56 percent chance, respectively, of taking the seat. These markets gauge trader sentiments based on political developments.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District has gradually moved rightward. It supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before voting for Trump in his three presidential contests. The district includes both rural northern areas and urban centers like Augusta, Bangor, and Lewiston. Despite its Republican lean, Democratic presence remains significant in its cities and liberal coastal zones. Consequently, Republicans, buoyed by Trump’s past performance, aim to capture the vacant seat left by Golden’s retirement.
Statewide, Maine’s preference leans Democratic. Trump lost Maine by 7 points in 2024. Nonetheless, Republican Senator Susan Collins has maintained electoral success due to her popularity and bipartisan reputation. Up for reelection, Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, spurring optimism among Democrats given Trump’s unfavorable standing in the state.
Republican Hopes in 2026
Securing LePage’s victory could mark a rare Republican gain outside of redistricted areas. Analysts expect an advantage for Democrats in the forthcoming elections. However, the district’s vacant seat represents a Republican opportunity. Democrats are investing in the contest, with support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) for Dunlap, initially backing centrist Joe Baldacci in the Democratic primary. Dunlap, endorsed by progressive California Representative Ro Khanna, presents a more progressive option for voters.
Both candidates will continue to campaign vigorously. Analysts forecast that the outcome leans in LePage’s favor. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.
Newsweek editors on this story are Gabe Whisnant and Sam Wilson.