President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined to 30 percent, reaching its lowest during his second term. This trend appears as Democratic voters show increased engagement and motivation as the November midterm elections draw near, based on a Pew Research Center survey.
Comparatively, Trump’s current approval rating is 8 percentage points lower than former President Joe Biden’s during a similar period of the 2022 midterm campaign. In Pew’s October 2022 survey, Biden held a 38 percent approval rating, while 59 percent disapproved.
Decline In Support
The survey indicates a drop in support primarily among Trump’s own 2024 voters. Although approximately two-thirds still approve of his performance, this is a decrease from 95 percent at the start of his term. The steepest declines are among Hispanic and younger voters.
The poll, conducted between September 28 and October 4, surveyed around 5,000 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters. With 26 days until the 2026 midterm elections, Trump remains a significant influence on voters’ congressional decisions.
Impact on Congressional Votes
The survey shows that 63 percent of registered voters consider Trump a factor in their congressional vote. More than double the number of respondents stated their vote is against Trump rather than supporting him. In comparison, an October 2022 Pew poll found 36 percent of voters opposed Biden in their congressional vote, while 19 percent supported him.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, remarked that voting against the president in a midterm is common. He noted that many Republicans might vote against Democrats instead of affirmatively supporting Trump or the Republican candidates. This opposition tactic seems more influential in recent years.
Trump has positioned himself as a prominent figure in the Republican congressional campaign. He urges supporters at rallies to act as if he is on the ballot, emphasizing his influence.
Heightened Democratic Engagement
Democratic voters demonstrate higher engagement levels as midterms approach. They are also more likely than Republicans to emphasize the importance of which party controls Congress. The survey found 78 percent of Democratic supporters value their party’s control, compared to 69 percent of Republicans.
Dissatisfaction with the nation’s condition is also prevalent. Seventy-seven percent of Americans express dissatisfaction, while 22 percent are satisfied. A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, conducted on September 26, identified that 42 percent of voters remain undecided on their midterm choices.
Reeher suggests this undecided voter percentage provides potential advantages for Republicans, especially in tight Senate races they have previously won.
Other Polling Insights
Additional national polls also reveal Trump’s approval rating below 40 percent. For instance, an AP-NORC poll conducted from September 24-28 reported 31 percent approval, while 69 percent disapprove. A Quinnipiac University poll from September 24-27 recorded 34 percent approval, with 61 percent disapproval.
However, a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from September 30 to October 2 showed a slightly higher approval of 39 percent, with 61 percent disapproving.
Trump has critiqued polls showing low approval. On August 30, he expressed dissatisfaction with media polling, calling for FCC intervention via Truth Social.