Most voters in Texas express significant concern that Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate for the Senate, may be too aligned with Donald Trump. A recent Fox News survey indicates this relationship might be influencing Paxton’s Democratic opponent, James Talarico, favorably. On Thursday, Trump supported Paxton at a rally in Denton.
Democrats aim to win the Senate in November, which would challenge Trump’s legislative power during his second term. Capturing a Senate seat in Texas, a feat last accomplished in 1988, is vital to this plan. Both campaigns were contacted by Newsweek for comments.
Fox News Poll Insights
The Fox News survey included 1,203 registered voters in Texas, with 881 likely voters, conducted between September 24-28. The poll revealed Talarico’s 2-point lead over Paxton, with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Talarico is notably more successful in garnering support from Democrats compared to Paxton’s impact with Republicans.
The poll showed 99% of Democrats support Talarico, while only 1% back Paxton. Among Republicans, 90% favored Paxton, whereas 10% chose Talarico. Paxton struggles particularly with non-MAGA Republicans, of whom 22% favor Talarico, unlike MAGA Republicans, 96% of whom support Paxton.
A considerable portion of voters, 37%, felt ‘extremely concerned’ and 14% ‘very concerned’ regarding Paxton’s closeness with Trump. Contrary to this, 29% remained ‘not at all concerned’, and 20% ‘not very concerned’. Ultimately, 51% are apprehensive, while 48% aren’t, plus 1% are unsure.
Among ‘non-MAGA’ Republicans, 39% are worried about Paxton’s Trump ties. In contrast, only 10% of ‘MAGA’ Republicans share this concern. The survey identifies Trump as a significant factor for 63% of voters when considering their Senate vote compared to 36% who find it less important.
A Big Data Poll of 698 likely voters found Talarico supports 15% of potential 2024 Trump voters, against Paxton’s 4.2% of probable Kamala Harris voters.
Trump’s Rally and Leaked Audio
During the Denton rally, Trump praised Paxton’s loyalty, claiming he has long been a supporter. Trump condemned Talarico as unsuitable for Texas, emphasizing the importance of votes. Meanwhile, leaked audio reported by The New York Times exposed Paxton criticizing Trump’s Dallas convention, alleging a negative impact on campaign numbers.
Paxton’s advisor dismissed the audio as manipulated, while Trump publicly endorsed Paxton at the convention, albeit in a mocking manner.
Candidate Challenges and Positions
Paxton narrowly defeated Republican Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement. The campaign was divisive, and Cornyn declined to support Paxton going forward.
Paxton faced impeachment from the Texas House over misconduct allegations but was acquitted by the state Senate. Despite controversies, he continued to deny charges.
Talarico, too, has faced criticism for remarks about religion and has focused his campaign on progressive issues such as AI profits distribution and marijuana legalization, contrasting with Paxton’s more traditional stances.
Recent Polls and Projections
Recent surveys illustrate Talarico’s narrow lead, typically within the margin of error. A Rasmussen Reports survey put Talarico ahead by one point, while a Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed a 5-point lead. Prediction markets suggest a higher probability of a Talarico victory, with a current 62% chance.