Darline Graham, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from South Carolina, is facing a tight race against Democratic contender Dr. Annie Andrews. A recent poll by The New York Times/Siena Research Institute shows both candidates are tied at 48 percent, with 3 percent of voters undecided. This survey comes just a day before former President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a rally with Graham in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
Midterm elections often serve as an assessment of the political climate for the party currently in power. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during these elections. Trump previously secured a victory in South Carolina during the 2024 presidential election against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
Darline Graham stepped into the Senate role following the death of her brother, the late Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away in July at age 71 from aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Darline was sworn in just three days after his death, with the support of Trump. Currently, Trump’s approval ratings have been declining on issues like the economy and immigration amid national affordability concerns.
Poll Insights and Voter Preferences
The poll indicates that men favor Graham by 55 percent compared to Andrews’ 40 percent, while women show 54 percent support for Andrews and 43 percent for Graham. Among Independents, 57 percent back Andrews, while 37 percent support Graham. Graham finds majority support from older white voters, those both with and without college degrees, and likely Republican voters. About 89 percent of Trump voters from 2024 favor Graham, with only 8 percent supporting Andrews.
When it comes to favorability ratings, Graham holds 44 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable ratings. Andrews has a slightly higher favorability at 45 percent with a 29 percent unfavorable rating. On economic leadership, 51 percent believe Andrews would perform better, compared to 43 percent who favor Graham. Regarding immigration, Graham is considered better by 50 percent, versus 44 percent for Andrews.
The poll involved 707 likely voters in South Carolina from October 19-26, 2026, and presents a margin of error of 4.3 percent. The Cook Political Report suggests a lean Republican stance for the race, while prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket see Graham leading as of Wednesday afternoon.
Expert Opinions and Voter Mobilization
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, noted that polls have recently leaned towards Democrats. However, he cautions that polls are mere snapshots and do not guarantee future outcomes. Voter decisions are usually firm by late October, offering some hope for Republicans in traditionally conservative states like South Carolina.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, expressed skepticism about current polling, noting last-minute Republican swings could occur. He remarked that a Democratic win in South Carolina would make a Republican hold in the Senate challenging.
Additional Poll Data
An InsiderAdvantage poll reported Graham at 46 percent, Andrews at 45 percent, Libertarian Kasie Whitener at 2 percent, and Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided. This survey, conducted September 28-29, 2026, queried 1,200 likely voters and presents a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
An earlier InsiderAdvantage poll from September 8-9, 2026, also showed Graham narrowly leading at 45.1 percent against Andrews’ 43.2 percent. In this survey, 3.2 percent supported another candidate, with 8.5 percent undecided. This poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters, carrying a 2.83 percent margin of error.