Latino men, who played a crucial role in President Donald Trump’s return to the White House during the 2024 election, are now distancing themselves from him. This shift occurs as the November midterm elections approach, according to a recent NBC News/Telemundo poll.
Changing Voter Dynamics
Traditionally, Hispanic and Latino voters have favored Democrats. Trump, however, made notable gains within these groups in the last election, aiding his victory in significant states like Arizona and Nevada. Democrats are working to regain Hispanic and Latino voters’ support in the midterms. The main question is whether they will succeed in reversing these trends or if the GOP’s recent gains are here to stay.
A turnaround among Latino men holds the potential to significantly affect Republican prospects in November. This is particularly relevant in competitive House districts and statewide contests in regions such as Texas, Nevada, and Florida.
Poll Insights
The NBC News/Telemundo survey highlights that Trump’s approval rating among Latino men is at 33%, with 64% disapproving of his performance. Democrats hold a 24-point lead among Latino voters on the congressional ballot, with 59% preferring Democratic control versus 35% favoring Republicans.
Latino women show stronger Democratic alignment compared to Latino men, with a 31-point advantage in favor of Democrats. Among Latino men, Democrats maintain a narrower yet significant lead, 53% to 39%.
Latino men, much like the broader Latino voting demographic, express serious concerns about economic issues and immigration enforcement. The survey reveals widespread dissatisfaction, evidenced by Trump’s overall approval rating of 27% within the Latino community, contrasted with a 69% disapproval rating.
Economic Concerns
Economic issues drive the shift in sentiment, with 65% of Latino voters stating Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions. Additionally, 63% report their household income cannot keep up with the cost of living.
The poll shows Democrats currently hold a 21-point advantage over Republicans on economic issues, a reversal from 2024 when Trump had a narrow lead over Kamala Harris.
On immigration, 67% consider Trump’s enforcement measures excessive, compared to 22% who believe the administration has followed the appropriate approach.
Historical Polling Comparisons
According to NBC News data, the Democrats’ 24-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters has doubled since the same point in 2024.
Despite increased dissatisfaction with Trump, Republicans retain some support from Latino voters, reflecting gains made during the Trump presidency. GOP backing remains higher than pre-2024 election polling levels.
The poll involved 800 registered Latino voters interviewed between September 21 and 28. Assessments conducted by phone and online ensured diverse participation, with 20% of interviews conducted in Spanish. The margin of error stands at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Polling Insights and Shifts
In August, CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported a decline in Trump’s approval among Hispanic voters. Enten cited CNN and SSRS polling, which showed a significant decline, with Trump’s approval among Hispanic men standing at -41 points.
Enten attributes the change to economic factors, noting a -49 point approval rating on economic issues among Hispanic men. This marked a decline from when Trump was viewed as more trustworthy on the economy than Harris in the fall of 2024.
Civiqs data indicates that 59% of Hispanic and Latino men disapprove of Trump, while 36% approve. Another survey by UnidosUS shows a similar disapproval rate of 64% among Latino men.
Analyzing the Shift
Economic factors significantly influence the changing approval ratings. Matt A. Barreto, faculty director at the UCLA Voting Rights Project, suggests that Trump’s unfulfilled economic promises have contributed to declining approval among Latinos, especially men.
Democrats have a chance to reconnect with Latino voters, though Barreto notes it is not automatically guaranteed. He advises Democrats to reassure Latinos they are fighting for middle-class interests.
Trump initially garnered Latino male support by addressing economic concerns and portraying a strong, decisive persona. Charles Venator-Santiago from the University of Connecticut highlights this approach while also noting Trump’s immigration policies have alienated some Latino voters.
Current Issues and Perceptions
Latino voters prioritize inflation and the cost of living, with two-thirds agreeing that Trump’s immigration policies have overreached. The heightened focus on immigration enforcement follows incidents like the July shooting in Houston during an ICE operation.
Official White House Perspective
The White House previously emphasized Trump’s accomplishments, describing the 2024 election win as a strong mandate for his agenda. Spokesperson Davis Ingle highlighted Trump’s efforts to create jobs, manage inflation, and increase housing affordability.
Future Outlook
Both parties plan to amplify efforts to engage Latino voters before the 2026 midterms. Republican pollster Micah Roberts describes Latinos as pivotal swing voters. Democrats, while experiencing Latino voters’ drift from Trump, still face challenges as the poll indicates a slight increase in negative perception of their party.
With 72% of Latino voters expressing high interest in the election and 54% using their vote to signal opposition to Trump, Latino voters, particularly men, remain a critical voting bloc this campaign cycle.