The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring three disturbances across the Atlantic basin. As this region nears its most active period, there’s growing attention on a tropical wave off the coast of Africa, which may develop next week.
Currently, there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. However, meteorologists are vigilant about tropical waves emerging from Africa. These waves often evolve into tropical storms and hurricanes that travel west. As of now, none of the three systems pose a risk to the United States.
“A tropical wave will likely organize into an area of low pressure shortly after emerging off the coast of Africa in the next few days,” stated WFLA meteorologist Juliana Mejia.
Where are the Disturbances?
According to the hurricane center’s 2 p.m. ET Saturday outlook, the following systems are under surveillance:
- Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure positioned several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. It might briefly exhibit tropical or subtropical characteristics before encountering unfavorable conditions near Portugal and northwestern Spain. It has a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
- Central Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles east-southwest of Bermuda, is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development is anticipated as it moves west-southwestward, turning north early next week. There is a 10 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance over seven days.
- West Africa: The most notable system is a tropical wave expected to move off Africa’s west coast early next week, where a low-pressure area could form. Development odds have risen, with forecasters estimating a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
Season Peak and Pacific Activity
The increased monitoring occurs just weeks before the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on September 10. Late August through October historically represents the busiest period for tropical development due to peak ocean temperatures and conducive atmospheric conditions.
Meanwhile, the Pacific has been noticeably more dynamic. Earlier this week, Hurricane Lala caused destructive flooding, damaging winds, and widespread power outages in Hawaii. Tropical Storm Moke is expected to deliver more heavy rain, flooding concerns, and dangerous surf to Hawaii this weekend.
The active El Niño phase has primarily driven the Pacific basin’s activity, benefiting from reduced vertical wind shear and heightened sea surface temperatures, fostering storm formation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Simultaneously, that same El Niño pattern has resulted in a quieter start in the Atlantic by enhancing upper-level wind shear, making conditions less favorable.
This contrast sheds light on the historical variability of tropical activity across different basins as Atlantic forecasters anticipate a potential change in momentum.