Democrat Mary Peltola is increasing her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in the Alaska U.S. Senate race. Scheduled to debate each other on Thursday night, Peltola’s popularity has risen in several recent polls. This increase offers hope for Democrats aiming to reclaim a Senate seat. They lost it in early 2015 when Mark Begich lost his bid for reelection to Sullivan. Thursday’s debate will occur from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. local time. It follows similar debates for the U.S. House and gubernatorial races.
An Alaskans for Mary spokesperson told Newsweek, “Alaskans know that Mary is the only candidate in this race who will stand up to anyone to fix the rigged system in DC, lower costs, and put Alaska first. While Dan Sullivan is forced to defend his record of raising prices and putting special interests before Alaskans, Mary will be highlighting her plans to make sure the next generation of Alaskans can afford to build their future in the state.”
Newsweek reached out to Sullivan’s campaign for comment on Thursday afternoon.
Why the Alaska Senate Race Matters
Alaska is one of several critical Senate races in the upcoming midterms. Democrats are striving to convert the upper chamber’s balance. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. While the state has supported Republican presidential candidates since 1968, Alaskan voters have sometimes preferred split tickets in congressional and gubernatorial races. Peltola, a past winner of a U.S. Representative seat in 2022, is now campaigning for the Senate.
A summary from the New York Times shows Peltola leading Sullivan in three polls since late September. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics recently adjusted Alaska’s race status from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.” This shift indicates Democratic progress.
Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola: Poll Insights
Peltola leads Sullivan in recent polls by margins of 2 to 7 percentage points, depending on the survey. The latest InsiderAdvantage poll, conducted October 9-10, shows Peltola at 48.2 percent and Sullivan at 42.6 percent. In the final round of ranked choice voting, the projected outcome is 50.1 percent for Peltola and 48 percent for Sullivan.
The Alaska Survey Research poll conducted October 1-3 has Peltola at 47 percent and Sullivan at 45 percent. In the final voting round, Peltola’s support rises to 51 percent and Sullivan’s to 49 percent.
The New York Times/Siena University poll from September 24 to October 1 gives Peltola her largest lead at 50 percent to 43 percent. Sullivan’s last lead appeared in the Trafalgar Group poll from September 22-24, showing him at 47 percent to Peltola’s 46 percent.
Prediction Markets and Election Expectations
Prediction markets are more optimistic about Peltola’s chances. As of Thursday night’s debate, Peltola holds a 74 percent chance of defeating Sullivan. Her chances have risen from 64 percent in mid-September.
Lucas Kohorst, co-founder of Adjacent Markets, remarked, “Traders are far more confident in Peltola than the polls are, which makes tonight a real test. A bad night would show up in the price within minutes.”
Key Issues for Alaskan Voters
Alaska’s high living expenses and fuel prices, worsened by the U.S. conflict with Iran, rank among top concerns for voters this cycle. On the day of the debate, regular gasoline averaged $4.96 per gallon in Alaska, exceeding the national average of $4.33. Utility companies have expressed concern over fuel costs. John Sims, president of Enstar Natural Gas, warned of potential shortages this winter, MS Now reported.
The fishing industry’s health has stirred discussion as well. Fisheries are vital to Alaska’s economy, and declining fish populations drive campaign conversations.
How to Watch the Alaska Senate Debate
The debate between Peltola and Sullivan starts at 7 p.m. on October 15 and lasts one hour. Alaska Public Media TV, Alaska’s News Source, and KTOO 360TV are broadcasting the event. Listeners statewide can tune into KSKA 91.1 FM Anchorage, KSKA 91.9 FM Girdwood, or other Alaska Public Radio Network stations. The debate is also streamed live at alaskapublic.org.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, the AI assistant, for story production. Contact Newsweek editors Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas for further insights.