Iran-backed Houthi forces seized Yemen’s strategic port city of Mocha, marking a concerning escalation in the region. Their advance towards positions overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatens a critical global trade route. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, and the Bab el-Mandeb serves as a vital southern gateway to the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia increasingly depends on this route to bypass Hormuz. The pressure on key shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula raises the risk of disruptions to oil and commercial traffic. Hisham Al-Omeisy, a senior Yemen adviser at the European Institute of Peace, notes that having Iran control Hormuz and the Houthis holding Bab el-Mandeb will likely increase oil and goods prices.
“Now you have Iran on one side of the Arabian Peninsula controlling Hormuz, and now the Houthis controlling Bab el-Mandeb on the other side of the peninsula,” Al-Omeisy said.
A senior U.S. administration official shared that the United States focuses on protecting national security interests. Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is a priority, as is working with regional partners for stability. Continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government on regional security challenges occurs regularly.
Yemeni government sources reported the Houthis took control of Mocha and reached the Hanish Islands. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces withdrew toward Dhubab, a strategic location opposite Perim Island. Control of these areas would significantly bolster control over Bab el-Mandeb.
The narrowest point of Bab el-Mandeb is approximately 18 miles wide, connecting the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea. It’s a major artery for goods and energy shipments between Asia and Europe. Its importance has increased during the Iran conflict.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a rise in crude oil movement through Bab el-Mandeb during 2026. Correspondingly, flows through Hormuz decreased significantly. The Saudi decision to reroute crude via its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu partly caused this shift.
Al-Omeisy expressed that the retreating government forces left behind military equipment capable of bolstering Houthi capabilities elsewhere. The focus may be on geographical gains, but the military consequences are significant.
Separately, Reuters reported the Houthi advance received guidance and arms from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Iranian sources indicated Tehran urged the Houthis to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia, providing funding, weapons, and officers, although Iran publicly denied directing operations.
The escalation follows a recent serious uptick in hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces. ACLED, a conflict-monitoring organization, documented significant fatalities as clashes spread throughout various Yemeni regions like al-Dali and Taizz.
Saudi forces have increased strikes against Houthis since military engagement resumed. In retaliation, Houthis executed a large wave of direct attacks using drones and missiles, injuring 73 people.
Saudi Arabia’s recent defense agreement with Pakistan and Turkey faces an early challenge amid these tensions. The pact notes that an attack on one member is an attack on all. However, Pakistan has not committed to military action at present.
While the Houthis claim navigation through the Red Sea is safe, Saudi vessels remain blockaded. Al-Omeisy noted that reversing Houthi territorial gains presents growing difficulties as they fortify positions effectively.
Oil markets are responding to these tensions. Brent crude increased over 5%, while U.S. crude rose above $100 a barrel.