In a recent challenge to the 2020 U.S. election results, former President Donald Trump referenced a report allegedly showing that thousands of noncitizens voted. Studies have shown this practice is rare. On Tuesday, Trump claimed that a U.S. Census Bureau report checked “Voter Records from 2020 against their Citizenship Records,” identifying 24,000 noncitizens who voted illegally in its initial search. Described as a “beginning analysis,” experts question the report’s methodology.
Claim and Analysis
The claim suggests that a Census Bureau report, which analyzed 128 million voters, proves over 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 election. However, this assertion is incorrect. The report relied on commercial voter files and federal records to identify noncitizen voters. Experts argue that the methodology may have led to false positives, such as mismatched names and addresses or outdated citizenship statuses.
“This is the weakest methodology description I’ve ever seen in a Census Bureau publication,” said Mark Lindeman, policy and strategy director at Verified Voting.
Lindeman noted the report fails to specify the databases used and potential sources of error, adding that it may serve as propaganda.
Report Details
From nearly 160 million voter records reviewed, the report claims to have identified over 24,000 noncitizen voters. More than 32 million records await further analysis. Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Marymount University, noted potential errors in the private firm’s voter file, federal records, and the record linkage process. The report’s lack of detail compromises its credibility.
Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center, also criticized the report. “The Census Bureau report does meet the standards of rigor and transparency that historically made the agency a trusted authority,” he stated, highlighting missing methodological details and its reliance on an unfamiliar data source.
Impact on Election Results
Trump maintained he won the 2020 election and advocated for the SAVE America Act, which would require voter ID and proof of citizenship nationwide. The House has passed the measure, but it faces opposition in the Senate.
Even if the alleged 24,000 noncitizen votes were accurate and all favored another candidate, they represented only 0.015% of the total presidential votes and would not have changed the election outcome. Joe Biden received 7,059,526 more votes than Trump. According to David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, these numbers would not alter any state’s results.
White House spokesperson Lauren Bis defended Trump’s claim of noncitizen voting, highlighting ongoing evidence of such registrations. The Census Bureau did not comment.