Democratic Candidates Gaining Ground
Democratic candidates are leading their Republican rivals in three Texas congressional districts previously won by President Donald Trump. This shift includes a double-digit lead in one area, based on polling by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs.
In Texas’ 15th Congressional District, Democratic nominee and Tejano singer Bobby Pulido holds a 50% to 45% lead over Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz. Previously, Trump had carried the district by 18 points. Additionally, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General, with a 50% to 42% margin. Cruz had carried the district by 9 points earlier.
Trends in Other Districts
The poll also examined Texas’ 28th and 34th Congressional Districts. In the 28th, Talarico leads Paxton 51% to 41%. Previously, Cruz had won by less than a point. In the 34th District, which is predominantly Hispanic, Talarico leads 53% to 42%, where Cruz had won by a narrow 2-point margin.
Factors Influencing the Shift
Republican strategist Mike Madrid suggests the shift reflects an overlooked trend in Hispanic voting behavior. He notes the Latino vote is currently a significant swing vote in America. Despite historical shifts towards Republicans in 2024, there’s potential for change due to economic dissatisfaction.
After observing South Texas alternatives firsthand, Madrid recognized Talarico’s effective outreach to working-class Latinos. Rather than focusing solely on ethnicity, Talarico’s economic message resonates with voters.
The Economic Context
Economic concerns are at the forefront for Hispanic voters, based on extensive national polling data.
According to a national UnidosUS poll conducted in 2026, 60% of Latino voters prioritize cost of living, followed by economic issues. Health care and housing also persist as areas of concern. Another national poll highlighted broad dissatisfaction with rising health care costs.
In Texas, tariffs and trade policy remain pressing, secondary to prices, wages, and jobs. Deportations also affect Hispanic voters personally rather than economically. Despite enforcement methods, 83% support focusing deportation efforts on serious criminal offenders.
Political Implications for November
The Texas Southern University poll aligns with other surveys, suggesting a potential Democratic shift. Changes in district ratings by Sabato’s Crystal Ball point toward competitive races, indicating Democratic gains in historically Republican areas.
Other surveys reveal tight competition. A University of Texas poll shows Talarico with slight leads, while Emerson College found the race almost tied. Voter age emerges as another dividing factor. Young voters favor Talarico, whereas older voters support Paxton.
Nate Silver cautions against overinterpreting single poll results, citing past Texas polling trends. While Talarico’s chances slightly favor Democrats, caution remains amid varying data.