Missouri’s Political Landscape
Cori Bush, a former member of Congress, is preparing for a political rematch in Missouri. She faces Representative Wesley Bell, who defeated her in a close primary in 2024. The primary is scheduled for August 4, ahead of the November midterm elections, testing the strength of the progressive movement in Missouri, following wins in cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Denver.
1st District Rematch
Voters in Missouri’s 1st District will decide between Bell, a moderate, and Bush, who served the district from 2021 to 2025, known for her progressive views. Bell, a local prosecutor, has targeted Bush’s opposition to Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill. Outside funding played a significant role in the previous race, especially from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
The Shift in Progressive Support
Progressive supporters of Bush hope for a change since 2024. The Democratic base shows frustration with the party establishment, particularly concerning President Donald Trump, and has leaned toward progressive candidates in recent primaries. The primary will reflect the current Democratic mood before midterms.
Polling and Odds
Polling data is limited, with one internal survey showing Bell slightly ahead. The HIT Strategies poll indicated Bell at 44% compared to Bush’s 40%, with 17% undecided. Bush is viewed slightly more favorably than Bell. Prediction markets like Kalshi give Bell a 59% chance of victory, while Bush’s chances are at 40%. Polymarket sets Bell’s chance at 64%.
Progressive Support for Bush
Bush has gained endorsements from progressive figures like Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Rashida Tlaib, and organizations like Justice Democrats. Bell’s supporters include House leadership, with AIPAC backing him as a “Pro-Israel Incumbent.”
Changes Since 2024
In 2024, Bell won one of the most costly House primaries. AIPAC spent over $8 million opposing Bush, who criticized U.S. military aid to Israel. Changes in opinion among Democrats regarding Israel show decreased favorability, impacting Bush’s arguments against Bell.
The Candidates Speak
Bush recently highlighted her accomplishments in Congress in an ad, emphasizing her efforts for funding and housing, and addressing the Gaza conflict. She stressed the need for a strong advocate in Washington. Bell criticized Bush’s focus, suggesting he is a more dedicated candidate for St. Louis, implying that Bush prioritizes herself.
Progressive Wins in Primaries
Progressives have achieved significant victories in midterm primaries. Notably, Claire Valdez in New York won over the seat of Nydia Velázquez. In Colorado, Melat Kiros defeated Diana DeGette, and other Justice Democrat candidates won in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas, strengthening the progressive stance in deeply Democratic regions.