In recent weeks, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning and Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore have experienced a notable shift in their projected NFL draft positions. Once anticipated to secure the top spots in the 2027 NFL draft, their rankings have declined, and they are no longer viewed as top-10 picks according to several NFL draft analysts, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper.
Mel Kiper, renowned in NFL draft analysis, published his 2027 draft big board on Thursday. Surprisingly, both Manning and Moore were ranked lower than expected, barely making the top-25 list. Neither Manning nor Moore ranked among Kiper’s top five quarterbacks, who are identified as:
- Drew Mestemaker from Oklahoma State
- Darian Mensah from Miami
- Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss
- CJ Carr from Notre Dame
- Austin Simmons from Missouri
Kiper stated, “Manning has slipped to QB6 on my board but remains a top-25 player due to his skill set. His size, mobility, and arm strength align with what NFL teams seek in a franchise quarterback. He’s capable of making impressive throws while on the move and poses a threat as a runner, having scored 10 rushing touchdowns last season.”
However, Manning’s inconsistency, particularly in accuracy and decision-making, complicates his evaluation. Despite NFL potential, questions surrounding his ability to consistently improve remain. Kiper noted, “Manning struggles in field vision compared to others on this list and occasionally throws off balance. While his accuracy has improved since 2025, it needs further enhancement. I’m eager to see his performance for the rest of the season.”
Manning’s fluctuating performance is a key reason for his ranking decline. Though sometimes promising, he frequently struggles against average competition.
Moore’s ranking fall stems more from a concussion sustained against USC rather than his on-field performance. In his four appearances this season, Moore completed 69.7% of passes, accounting for 926 yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Should Moore return and excel as the season progresses, his draft prospects could improve, potentially placing him within the top 15 picks in April. Kiper commented, “At his best, Moore is an impressive passer. He adapts arm angles, has reliable mechanics, exhibits precise ball placement, and shows good deep ball touch. His throws seem effortless due to his arm strength, and he delivers while moving. Moore even possesses some scrambling skill as part of a full toolbox.”
Moore must, however, demonstrate his ability to dominate high-tier competition. His outstanding performance against Penn State in 2025 had led to expectations of entering the 2026 draft as a leading quarterback. Despite this, Moore couldn’t consistently replicate such performances against top teams throughout that season.