Democrat Mary Peltola has extended her polling lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska. With three weeks until Election Day, Peltola holds a 6-point advantage. This development comes ahead of President Donald Trump’s visit to Alaska to support Sullivan. Trump’s declining popularity may be affecting Sullivan’s campaign, despite past benefits from their association.
Despite allegations from former staffers regarding Peltola’s behavior while in the House of Representatives, she has maintained her lead. Her campaign attributed her past actions to dealing with grief from personal losses. Democrats aim to gain control of the Senate, hoping victories in states like Alaska, Texas, and Maine will help.
“Mary welcomes any President visiting the state to hear about the issues Alaskans are facing, and she looks forward to working with President Trump to unleash Alaska energy and lower costs for when she’s elected to the United States Senate,” a spokesperson for her campaign told Newsweek.
Sullivan faces criticism for his policies and support for the war in Iran. Peltola focuses on discussing issues with Alaskans, emphasizing her plans to address corruption and prioritize the state’s needs.
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan: Latest Polls
The latest InsiderAdvantage poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and October 10, showing Peltola with 48.2% of the first-round vote compared to Sullivan’s 42.6%. In the final round of Alaska’s ranked choice voting, Peltola would have 50.1% versus Sullivan’s 48%.
Another poll conducted by Alaska Survey Research from October 1 to October 3 showed Peltola leading with 51% and Sullivan at 49%. While party lines remain clear, 14.4% of Republicans indicate support for Peltola.
Sullivan has led in some polls, but Peltola often maintains an overall lead, especially in a state that traditionally supports GOP candidates.
According to Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Alaska’s ranked choice voting and current Democratic environment are favorable for Peltola. She benefits from ballot structure, being the sole Democrat candidate.
Prediction Markets Insight
Prediction markets show Sullivan facing tougher odds than polling suggests. On Polymarket, Peltola holds a 72.5% chance of victory, while Sullivan has a 28.5% likelihood. Kalshi markets similarly show Peltola at 75% odds versus Sullivan’s 27%.
This disparity highlights more optimistic views among prediction markets regarding Peltola’s success.
Upcoming Alaska Trump Rally for Dan Sullivan
Trump will continue his midterm campaign tour, planning a rally in Wasilla to support Sullivan. Despite Trump not being a candidate, the event aims to bolster Sullivan’s reelection bid.
Trump’s approval in Alaska has decreased due to rising living and fuel costs. Sullivan faces challenges due to his support of policies concerning the Iran war, spurring additional scrutiny.
Vice President JD Vance has previously visited Fairbanks to support Sullivan, expressing concern that Democrats might engage in unethical practices to win the midterms.
Significance of Alaska Senate Race
Republicans have held Alaska’s Senate seats since 2014, with Sullivan’s seat being a primary target for Democrats hoping to reverse the current majority in the Senate. Peltola’s previous statewide role as a U.S. Representative adds momentum to her campaign.
Republicans remain hopeful Sullivan can retain his seat, noting previous election performance and Trump’s past influence. The upcoming rally will indicate whether Trump still holds substantial political leverage in Alaska.
Both parties are vigilant, assessing the implications of this race within the broader scope of the midterm elections.