A Democratic candidate is posing a significant challenge in traditionally Republican Mississippi. A recent poll indicates Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith holds a slim lead of just four points over her opponent, Scott Colom.
The survey, conducted by Wedgewood Polls, shows Hyde-Smith at 52 percent and Colom at 48 percent. The gap falls within the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error. The poll was carried out with 511 likely voters from October 12 to 14.
This poll followed Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s reclassification of the race from ‘Safe Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican,’ suggesting increased competition, even though Hyde-Smith still leads.
Crosstabs from the poll reveal a split electorate. Colom garnered 91 percent support among Black voters and led amongst voters aged 18 to 29, 56 percent to 44 percent. Conversely, Hyde-Smith received 78 percent support from white voters and 88 percent from those who voted for former President Donald Trump in 2024. Black voters made up 37 percent of the weighted sample.
Wedgewood Polls independently designed and funded the survey. It involved recruiting respondents through an online panel, screening them for registration and likelihood of voting, and weighting for gender, age, race, ethnicity, and education. Subgroup margins of error are larger.
The findings reflect increased Democratic interest in a Senate seat long controlled by Republicans. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported on Democratic donors directing funds toward this race, seeing Mississippi as a potential target.
However, the poll only tested Hyde-Smith and Colom. Ty Pinkins, an independent candidate, is also on the ballot, making the head-to-head results an incomplete picture.
If Colom wins, he would become Mississippi’s first Democratic senator elected since 1982. While the race presents an opportunity for Democrats, one poll within the margin of error does not indicate a definitive trend.
Further developments are expected. Stay tuned for more updates.